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An eastward-propagating convective pulse will leave the Atlantic quite favorable toward hurricane development in the weeks ahead. Another pulse may reach the Atlantic in late September, potentially enhancing any ongoing activity or helping to spawn new activity.

About 40% of ECMWF ensemble members forecast a tropical storm or hurricane near the southern Gulf of Mexico next Sunday, September 8th 👀

🔵 Not one, but two cool, Canadian air masses will grace the eastern U.S. during early September 😌 Quite a contrast to what has been a very humid summer. It will feel like October at times! 🎃

🤓 Nerd alert! In New Zealand, Chris Brandolino and I host a monthly segment called "nerd alert" where we go into the weeds about global climate drivers and trends. Here's our latest episode. Enjoy!

It will be a sunny start to September in the #HudsonValley 🌞 Happy September! The 2024-25 school year is nearly upon the Hudson Valley. Welcome back! 🚌 I regret to inform you that there will not be a snow day this week. However, I’m pleased to advise that there will be

It's September 1st. Winter outlook season has officially arrived! What are you hoping for this winter? ☃️

The trend is definitely the east's friend 📉 A surge of low humidity, crisp, Canadian air will press pause on summer. For some places, it will be the coolest conditions since May!

Wildfire activity in the western U.S. & Saskatchewan, Canada will contribute to smoky skies across several states in the days ahead 💨 Some smoke will get pulled into the Midwest & Plains on Thursday & potentially the Northeast on Friday-Saturday. The Northwest also looks smoky.

A very early visit from the polar jet stream will make it feel like October in the Midwest on Saturday & Northeast on Sunday! 🔵 After that, a return to summer: spells of warmer than average temperatures are forecast in mid-to-late September...

Interestingly, the atmospheric stability that is contributing to the lack of Atlantic hurricanes was *well advised* by the ECMWF seasonal forecast issued in May 2024. This plot shows the forecast lapse rate percentile for June-August 2024, using historical forecasts issued for