Great thread here I’ve posted about this through the year but the major tail case / huge macro change that seems most likely to me is not recession — it’s Saudi flooding the oil market after the election 2015 repeat framework again

I was a Toyota (Tokyo Hq) "strategic" consultant for decades (T stopped the contract when I was identified as PM Abe, Shinzo's "advisor" -T opposes "Japan Inc" statism). As an old Toyota man I am proud that its lonely insistence on hybrid viz all-electric is finally vindicated.

Don't look now, but Mr Yen awaking from his August nap to rework havoc on global liquidity.

Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇺🇦 Agreed. However, some timing is forced upon them. With US eco data now showing clear path to more unemployment, gasoline consumption in US is at risk (which already shows in diffs WTI - RBOB); US gasoline is key for crude oil globally. Saudis understand that. They now must

Saudis are in a bind Gasoline crack spreads signal that the single most important petroleum product market in the world is weakening quickly. #OOTT #Oil

The more of this I read, the more I know we are close to the end game. In 2023, OPEC was fighting the fed, now it’s fighting the global eco slowdown. Those are silly battles to pick. Choose your fighter carefully. #OPEC

Parkinson‘s law