Callam Pickering(@CallamPickering) 's Twitter Profileg
Callam Pickering

@CallamPickering

APAC senior economist at @IndeedAU. Former RBA economist and economic journalist. Sports lover, avid reader and pretty opinionated. Active: #ausbiz #auspol

ID:1237821320

linkhttps://www.hiringlab.org/au/ calendar_today03-03-2013 05:06:36

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Accounting for population growth, the number of dwelling approvals is almost 32% below its long-run average.

Data on dwelling approvals goes back to 1983 and dwelling approvals, as a share of the resident population, has never been lower than right now

Accounting for population growth, the number of dwelling approvals is almost 32% below its long-run average. Data on dwelling approvals goes back to 1983 and dwelling approvals, as a share of the resident population, has never been lower than right now #auspol
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Callam Pickering(@CallamPickering) 's Twitter Profile Photo

On a trend basis, Australian dwelling approvals eased 0.6% in April. It's now at its lowest level since April 2012.

Obviously there is a long lag between approvals and construction / completions but a 12-year low is hardly ideal in the current housing / rental crisis.

On a trend basis, Australian dwelling approvals eased 0.6% in April. It's now at its lowest level since April 2012. Obviously there is a long lag between approvals and construction / completions but a 12-year low is hardly ideal in the current housing / rental crisis.
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There's just no way that someone like me - already receiving a hefty tax cut - should be receiving another $300 to pay my energy bill

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It's premature to talk about the demise of Australia's labour market.

Indeed's measure of new job postings - which tracks closely with the ABS job vacancy measure - indicates that there remains incredibly strong labour demand through to May

It's premature to talk about the demise of Australia's labour market. Indeed's measure of new job postings - which tracks closely with the ABS job vacancy measure - indicates that there remains incredibly strong labour demand through to May #ausbiz
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The disconnect between wage growth and productivity growth represents a considerable risk to returning inflation to the RBA's 2-3% target consistently.

We need to see a huge improvement in productivity.

The disconnect between wage growth and productivity growth represents a considerable risk to returning inflation to the RBA's 2-3% target consistently. We need to see a huge improvement in productivity.
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Callam Pickering(@CallamPickering) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The RBA's latest economic forecasts.

Still expect inflation to return to their 2-3% target by the end of next year.

Unemployment rate expected to be a touch lower than previously.

Also note that the forecasts are based on a much higher cash rate assumption.

The RBA's latest economic forecasts. Still expect inflation to return to their 2-3% target by the end of next year. Unemployment rate expected to be a touch lower than previously. Also note that the forecasts are based on a much higher cash rate assumption.
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The decline in retail volumes per capita is considerably larger than during the 1990s recession or the GFC.

It'll be a brave (perhaps reckless?) RBA that hikes into that.

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Callam Pickering(@CallamPickering) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Australian retail volumes per capita fell 1% in the March quarter and have tumbled 3.6% over the past year. Down 5.7% from its peak.

Cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh heavily on many households.

Australian retail volumes per capita fell 1% in the March quarter and have tumbled 3.6% over the past year. Down 5.7% from its peak. Cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh heavily on many households.
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ANZ_Research(@ANZ_Research) 's Twitter Profile Photo

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads rose 2.8% m/m in April, thanks to a lift in Ads in South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland. @MadelineDunk Callam Pickering Catherine Birch

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As a share of Australia's population, the number of dwelling approvals is at extremely low levels.

Around 32% below it's long-term average right now, which is pretty much the opposite of what a country facing a severe housing crisis needs.

As a share of Australia's population, the number of dwelling approvals is at extremely low levels. Around 32% below it's long-term average right now, which is pretty much the opposite of what a country facing a severe housing crisis needs.
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Callam Pickering(@CallamPickering) 's Twitter Profile Photo

This is really a disaster given the level of migration Australia is currently running.

Dwelling approvals are currently at a level that would have been considered a bit low 20 years ago.

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