Great chart from OECD via my good friend Michael Green Fascinating indeed!

Big thank you to my friend Kelly Evans for the platform to talk China, global macro, and US politics!

Always such a pleasure to sit down with my 🇨🇦 brethren@PatrickCeresna and Kevin Muir! Thank you for the platform and the awesome long format!

Not only is this a function of technical difficulty of diversifying from China Juan Correa-Ossa, but it is also a function of a multipolar world. The rest of the world just does not see China as big of a threat as the US. So, there is no panicked rush for the exit.

My good friend @jvisser_weiss is BAAAACK! Make sure you subscribe to his YouTube channel! youtube.com/watch?v=_si7ju…

Big thank you to my friend and colleague Peter Berezin for giving me the keys to his car (BCA's Global Investment Strategy) for the weekend! I clearly did a few doughnuts in the parking lot. Hopefully the tires are not too worn out! 🙃

One of the GREATEST fallacies in the market, at the moment, is that Biden's Chips Act and IRA spurred an investment boom in the US. FALSE. The investment boom preceded both and is related to US consumers CONSUMING pandemic fiscal spending. That spending is loooooong gone.

Big thank you to Financial Review for this very cool analysis! I loved my time in Australia, as always! afr.com/chanticleer/wh…

The decline in oil over the past two weeks suggests that there was a healthy geopolitical risk premium in the market. Forget for a minute whether prices should even fall due to a shaky ceasefire negotiations. Let's consider what WTI under $70 tells us about the economy...

The amount of time to retaliate against the Haniyeh assassination has been quite long. The obvious reason why may be the official one: Tehran is waiting to see how ceasefire negotiations evolve. But, it could be because Tehran is seeking targets outside of the region.

This is a great three hour documentary... Love listening to long-form stuff like this. Great for work outs and long hikes. Anyone have any other recommendations? What are your favorite 1 hour+ YouTube "finds?" youtube.com/watch?v=4WXoop…

The AI mania has extended the tech bubble that would have naturally died in 2021. The irony here is that the AI bubble is bidding up the Mega Tech stocks. In history, incumbents have never successfully adopted new tech. Ever. Read this book for why! amazon.com/Engines-That-M…

The election in Thuringia was not as much of an "earthquake" as many think. The AfD did really well, that is true. But, the COMBINED vote of the anti-establishment trio (AfD, BSW, and Die Linke) is 61.7%, higher than 54.4% in 2019, but not overwhelmingly so.

Is more downside in store for USD?

My colleague Peter Berezin warns investors of an impending recession. Definitely worth a read given that Peter was a bull for the past two years! So, this is not a perma-bear writing.

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia has not diverted Moscow from Donetsk Oblast. This was always obvious. Russia does not have to defend territory it knows Ukraine does not want to annex. As such, Moscow is focusing on what it wants: Donbas. reuters.com/world/europe/r…

This is the result of a "Google Image Search" for "Economist covers Europe." I just spent a wonderful 3-4 weeks traveling to and from Europe, visiting clients, etc. For sure there are problems. What country/continent doesn't have any? But if you're reading The Economist , you'd

Thank you Jesse Day for the invite and Wasif Latif for the company!

Pretty clear that VP Harris beat expectations and thus "won" the debate by "beating the proverbial spread." Does it matter? It's not like she put the election away. With Harris now in the lead, but unlikely to carry the Senate, can investors really price anything?

Ein großes Dankeschön an The Market NZZ und Mark Dittli für die Plattform!