What does the rapid #equity rally of the past few weeks signal? Are we in a bull #market or is the rally just an interim episode in a #BearMarket, also known as a bear market rally? More from Florian IELPO here: bit.ly/3QOCOmr #simplyput #markets

√ #China new orders to inventories ratio rebounded significantly more than the headline NBS manufacturing PMI

1/2 The collapse in #US consumer confidence (down 1.7 standard deviations from the mean) has generally led to a similar collapse in business sentiment (down to around 40) Why hasn’t this happened yet and what could be different about this cycle?

√ Latest world food price index was down again in August, 14% below the March 2022 all-time high and below the level seen before the Ukraine war👇 √ This points to a turn in #EM food inflation in the 2nd half of the year as it lags FAO food price change by about 5 months👇

Metal prices have continued to co-move with global activity (i.e. new orders to inventories) - quite amazing correlation btw - while about $15 a barrel of war premium seems to remain in the current oil price

If today’s inflation report teaches us something, it probably is that we need to remain on the look out for diversification sources. Chinese bonds anyone?

1/2 √ #US core inflation is essentially a story about medical care prices and rents (40% of core CPI), up 6.8% y/y and on a continuous rise from 2% in March 2021 while inflation on other core items peaked at 7.8% in Feb this year

Les excès de 2020 sont la cible de la Fed, et le dossier a bien avancé. Merci Alexandre Baradez

Thanks Frederik Ducrozet, the UK situation will see offsprings: gouvernements vs. central banks. Inflation is demand driven. Both need to cool down.

Les gouvernements européens aussi seront tentés de stimuler, ça n’est ni une spécificité de la Grande Bretagne, ni de 2022. Hausses de taux = tentation fiscale.

1/2 √ #US core inflation is essentially a story about rents (40% of core CPI), up 7% y/y and on a continuous rise from 2% in March 2021 while inflation on other core items peaked at 8.6% in Feb this year

1/3 √ November global manufacturing PMI fell lower by 0.6pt to 48.5, remaining below the 50 threshold for the 3rd consecutive month √ The only region with a manufacturing survey above 50 is EM-Asia ex-China

√ The share of small business which is planning price hikes was unchanged in Nov at 34%, still largely above long-term average

Les Actions Européennes viennent de boucler leur 3ème meilleure « première semaine » depuis 1987 :)

4/4 √ Inflation components show that short-term pressures continue to decline rapidly, well below the long-term average and largely driven by advanced economies

ISM non-manufacturing index, which had dipped below 50 and was pointing to barely positive services consumption growth, rebounded strongly in January to 55.2, associated with an increase in services consumption of 2.2% y/y

#FF I met Paul probably 20 years ago and he was already an expert on China So for anyone interested in China or Asia in general, Paul (East Asia Econ) is a must follow!

Or not! x.com/elerianm/statu…

Je fais confiance à François Fillon. S'il veut aller jusqu'au bout, c'est qu'il sait que rien ne justifie une mise en examen. #LeGrandRDV

Let's be clear: withdrawal from Paris accord isn't about competitiveness or jobs; even corporate America wanted to stay in 1/