Really interesting report here: 1) World opinion is polarizing on China/Russia vs US lines 2) Favorability toward Russia/China is much more correlated with social liberalism than it used to be 3) Social liberalism has surged in high-income democracies bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…

When science fiction becomes just science

Heading out to Chicago for the Democratic National Convention for the week. Do hit me up for coffee if you’re around and interested in our Focaldata polling of all the swing states.

Good morning from Chicago where we’ve got some of the Focaldata team here for the DNC. We’ve got polling out with Semafor this morning on the US Presidential election, with Harris taking leads across 5/7 battleground states. Looks v. close - particularly Pennsylvania

NEW battleground state polls from Focaldata: Michigan 🟦 Kamala Harris 51% (+7) 🟥 Donald Trump 44% Nevada 🟦 Kamala Harris 50% (+6) 🟥 Donald Trump 44% Wisconsin 🟦 Kamala Harris 48% (+6) 🟥 Donald Trump 42% North Carolina 🟦 Kamala Harris 47% (+1) 🟥 Donald Trump 46%

If RFK drops out of the US presidential race this would materially benefit Trump. We surveyed the difference in voting intention here of a straight run off at Focaldata and it basically moves the contest to a dead heat.

Fascinating map from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on working from Home in England. It suggests that WFH will not lead to a fundamental redistribution and diffusion of high paying white collar jobs throughout the country. Norwich, Devon, Monmouthshire and Cotswolds slight outliers though here

The Focaldata US MRP state level and congressional forecasts have been whirring up and the results are pretty interesting, and not consensus. If you sign up to our newsletter you gain access to them as we release them throughout the campaign focaldata.com/bi-focal

Very excited to be back in election mode for Focaldata