Liam Donovan(@LPDonovan) 's Twitter Profileg
Liam Donovan

@LPDonovan

Politics. Hoyas. YMMV. Views expressed are mine alone, obviously. @TheLobbyShopPod

ID:48012011

linkhttp://lpdonovan.substack.com/ calendar_today17-06-2009 16:15:19

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Brandon Finnigan(@B_M_Finnigan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Duh, just review polling from the last time a sitting President faced off against the previous one (and each of them earned their respective party’s nominations, not fail to get nom’d or running 3rd party). Real apples to apples. What was the youth telegram response rate in 1892?

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Steve Kornacki(@SteveKornacki) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One group we’re paying attention to are voters who disapprove of Biden’s job performance, but only “somewhat.” They make up 9% in our poll and break:
Trump 42%
Biden 37%

In 2019, when Trump was president, the “somewhat disapprove” vote in our polling was:
Biden 66%
Trump 10%

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Noah Wyhof-Rudnick(@rudnicknoah) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Incumbency advantage has eroded - it sits at about 2 to 3 points which I wrote here in early 2018: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…

And 538 after the election with the same numbers: fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-m…

Win rate is higher because they now sit in more polarized seats than before

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Liam Donovan(@LPDonovan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

And while it's the crime family corruption caricature Trump is trying to exploit (in part to deflect from his own cartoonish exploits), you shouldn't underestimate the resentment he has been able to tap into over the past 8 years over the prevalence of this track.

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Liam Donovan(@LPDonovan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Interesting interview here with Judis and Teixiera. Hardly a new turn but still something to hear the authors of the Emerging Democratic Majority speaking from AEI and sounding like David Shor. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pla…

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Brendan Buck(@BrendanBuck) 's Twitter Profile Photo

On our fourth speaker now in 8 years, and the Freedom Caucus already back to being furious about the appropriations process, maybe its time for them to realize it's not the speaker, it's them. msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-…

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Liam Donovan(@LPDonovan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Mainstream dormancy was the best political gift Trump ever got. Tougher post-indictment, but until now he's been able to operate on dual frequencies.

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Liam Donovan(@LPDonovan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Even if you accept the premise here, I'm fairly certain the operative base psyche doesn't lend itself to ditching Trump and going with the competition just because the witch hunt is probably going to be successful.

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