Today was Putin's third Victory Day parade since the start of the Special Military Operation. This year promised to be a turning point for the Russian war effort but so far it has been unable to fully exploit its military advantages. Next year may be harder.…

Should Russia Survive Putin? | 'Whatever happens in the next few years, the West should stay on the sidelines when it comes to Russian state unity.' Sam Greene cepa.org/article/should…

Fuelling so many great discussion in my line of work one week on 👇

For 3 days there has been a blizzard of conflicting leaks, briefings and statements from both Israel and Hamas. Now that Hamas are claiming to have agreed to the Egyptian proposal, we still don’t have clarity but we may be getting closer. Here are the remaining hurdles to a deal>

Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in the pages of the French newspaper Le Figaro that China wants to work with France and the entire international community to end the war in Ukraine, which he called crisis resolution. lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/xi-j…

This may be an overstatement but the gist of it confirms other reports. Points again to the sheer incoherence of IDF strategy in Gaza; driven from the political top down. Netanyahu's circles of political survival getting ever smaller and faster. Everyone else suffers.

Those who read Sam’s preview of local/ mayoral elections will not have been surprised by results. Here he analyses their implications for general election and beyond. samf.substack.com/p/the-long-goo…

A very sobering Oliver Carroll interview with Ukraine’s deputy mil intel chief. He says Chasiv Yar will fall eventually, that Ukraine is far from stabilising the front and that Russia is “generating a division of reserves” & wants to strike at Sumy/Kharkiv. economist.com/europe/2024/05…

It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan

Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/

Russian forces have gained tactically near Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, and have attempted a large assault towards Sivers'k. Frontelligence Insight provides a concise analysis of the current situation in this 🧵thread

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'The history of Nato is one of continual doubts and uncertainties. Yet it has reached its seventy-fifth birthday larger than ever, more or less united and more or less secure'

Lawrence Freedman (Lawrence Freedman) on a history of the enduring western military a... the-tls.co.uk/articles/deter…

Had some great comments back on this.

The post looks at the development of the distinction between strategy and tactics in the military sphere, and how tactics came to be demoted. It looks at the tendency in the business sphere to separate strategy as objective setting while tactics is purely about implementation. I…

Putin has been consistent and explicit on the purpose of Russian nuclear forces - to deter Western forces from fighting side by side with Ukrainian. That works for him. Nuclear use for any lesser scenario jeopardises that purpose. samf.substack.com/p/escalation-r…

The debate continues. Probably even Putin does not know whether or when he might use nuclear weapons. It is reasonably safe to assume that he will not do so while he is seen as winning / gaining ground in Ukraine, or in case of a stalemate.

The question becomes less clear when…

1/ Konrad Muzyka - Rochan Consulting has published an excellent if rather gloomy thread on the current situation in Ukraine. In the interests of helping it to reach a wider audience, I thought an English translation would be useful. x.com/konrad_muzyka/…