China Commerce of Ministry: On Canada tariffs on Chinese products, China to initiate anti-dumping investigation into Canola imports from Canada, Chinese palmoil, soyoil, soymeal, rapemeal rallied

Now, Canadian canola needs to gain back regular volumes to Japan and Mexico, with a return to bigger exports to Europe in 24/25.

Possible bright spot in this canola issue. If the dumping "investigation" takes a few months, like it did for Aus barley a few years ago, we could move a lot of canola to China in Q1 of 24/25 before it kicks in. Highly speculative. Cross your fingers.

Cargill West Fargo is out with new crop 2025 #sunflower prices @ $20.50 cash & $20.00 AOG.

For reference, I looked up how long China "investigated" Australian barley for alleged dumping. Turns out the investigation process lasted 18 months. Not that Cdn canola will be the same, but worth considering. Bad news is, tariffs lasted over 3 years.

Paraná, Brazil #wheat condition ratings revised down to 36% now This is well below any recent years for this week DERAL thinks there are still more losses to be accounted for as harvest reaches 11% done The region can't afford any hiccups in Argentina

Chuck Penner of @LeftfieldCR says that there are several unknowns ahead for the #canola market: ow.ly/6jZe50TfTJe #cdnag #ontag #westcdnag

I thought Chuck_Penner did a great job breaking down the market reaction to China pushing back against Canada this week by using canola as a leverage tool. youtube.com/watch?v=LdKrUI…

The main reason Canada exported more canola in 22/23? Cda had a decent crop after the '21 drought. Acreage was lower but yields recovered. The reason why more was exported to China? It dropped its restrictions on Viterra & Richardson in mid-22. So dumping? Umm no.

Wow, it's been a long time since we've seen something like this. Domestic processing is always good for the market. P&H Milling to build flour mill in Alberta world-grain.com/articles/20433…

Welp, there's yer problem

#Rapeseed #crush in #Ukraine will be lower vs last season. Key problem - rps production down and great competition between crusher-exporter. Last season, rps crush was 1 MMT. It's season may be see ~0.4 MMT

As beer loses share to hard seltzer, US barley farmers scramble - reuters.com/markets/commod…

Zero tariff on Indian yellow pea imports extended to Dec 31. In time to see how rabi planting goes.

StatsCan trimmed 520kt of canola and 180kt of lentils from its last estimate. Flax cut to 265kt. Added 160kt to peas. Other changes small. Wheat nearly unchanged.

Chuck Penner examines the positive but limited news from India in the latest Pulse Market Insight as the zero tariffs on yellow peas were extended to December 31 ow.ly/w81F50TojzQ #westcdnag @leftfieldcr

Interesting pattern of StatsCan canola production estimates in recent years. Since 2020, when model-based started for Aug, Sep est has always been lower. In all years, the final (post-Dec) estimate has always been revised higher, sometimes a lot.

If only there was a way to know how prices will respond after harvest. Not a guarantee, but pretty good odds.

Looks like Cdn canola is a good value in Europe