Our own Kevin Gordon is appearing momentarily on TD Ameritrade Network with Nicole Petallides live from #SchwabIMPACT

Equity put/call ratio spiked yesterday to highest since March 2020

October ISM Services down to 54.4 vs. 55.3 est. & 56.7 prior; prices moved up, new orders fell to lowest since June; inventory still contracting; new export orders sank into contraction; and employment dipped back into contraction

3Q22 nonfarm productivity (blue) +0.3% (q/q) vs. +0.5% est. & -4.1% prior; unit labor costs (orange) +3.5% vs. +4% est. & +8.9% prior (notably revised down from +10.2%)

Initial jobless claims at 217k vs. 220k est. & 218k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.485M vs. 1.45M est. & 1.438M in prior week … greatest increases in CA (+2.5k), OR (+1.6k), & WA (+676); greatest decreases in FL (-1.8k), KY (-1k), & NC (-812)

October ⁦ChallengerGray⁩ job cut announcements +48% y/y vs. +68% in prior month … fifth consecutive month of increases; Tech saw most announced cuts at 5.3k, followed by warehousing (2.5k) and services (1.8k)

S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats have 10% outperformance YTD; continued strength & diversification in earnings has helped dividends to remain firm & 2022 is on well on track to mark new high for total dividends paid by S&P 500 constituents
⁦S&P Dow Jones Indices⁩

Index drawdowns table updated thru yesterday’s close

MA breadth charts updated thru yesterday’s (ugly) close

Historical pattern holding firm this year (red dot) as rise in 10y real yield has coincided with fewer zombie companies
⁦Arbor Data Science⁩ ⁦Bloomberg LP⁩

Larger/more popular FANG-related growth names have collective forward P/E of 17 … near recent low and among lowest in past few years

Rolling 1m correlation for S&P 500 coming down swiftly, though not yet back to lows seen earlier this year

Tweeted this out yesterday as well but worth re-posting given another move higher in market’s expectation for fed funds rate

Moment of truth approaching as supply-side inflation indicators within ISM Manufacturing—prices (blue) and supplier deliveries (orange)—plunge while CPI remains elevated

Wage gains for job stayers (blue) haven’t moved down markedly in y/y terms; yet, for job changers, the deceleration has been a bit faster (but still strong relative to history at +15.2%) per ⁦ADP⁩

Path of least resistance for mortgage demand continues to be down … ⁦Mortgage Bankers Association⁩ index now at lowest since early 1997

Sharp rebound in October vehicle sales per ⁦WardsAuto⁩ … 14.9M annualized level was strongest since January, above 14.5M est. and way higher than 13.49M in prior month

Yesterday’s peak-to-trough % drop wasn’t as bad for Dow (shedding nearly 1000 points) but still quite something
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]

Fed day proved (yet again) to be highly volatile … S&P 500 spiked by 1.3% on Fed decision and then dropped by -3.5% from peak into close
[Past performance is no guarantee of future results]