Consumer inflation expectations for the next year and longer-term moved up notably this month. A continuation of this could push rate cut expectations out further.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index fell more than expected to 77.9 in April. It's affected by sentiment around inflation, and the plateau in CPI numbers are likely keeping a lid on it here.

With big Financial names set to report this week and next, it's notable that consensus is for negative earnings growth until Q4. The comps are off of some strong 2023 numbers, but I wonder if the tone will change when we start hearing from CEOs.

Earnings season is back! Consensus is for both earnings and revenue growth of 3%, with earnings growth expected to accelerate for the rest of the year. Upside surprises wouldn't be... eh... surprising given the economy, but guidance is a bigger question mark.

March headline CPI hot at 3.5% vs 3.4% est and 3.2% last month. That's four months in a row of hotter than expected data. 10Y Treasury on the doorstep of 4.5%, curve is now more inverted. Futures probability of a Fed cut in June dropped from 61% to 28%.

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Is this year's Mag 7 going to be the Mag Metals??

Back to October 2023 levels in terms of market’s expectation for number of Fed rate cuts this year

Will the eclipse affect trading volume today? Will it matter if it does?

With the 10y Treasury yield comfortably above 4.35% (i.e. what was a key technical level), 4.50% is not far off. A hot CPI print on Wednesday would probably do it.

The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8% in March, while the labor force participation rate increased from 62.5% to 62.7% and average weekly hours worked ticked up to 34.4. Very little weakness in this jobs report, pushing up Treasury yields roughly 7bps across the curve.

March NFP jobs saw a gain of 303k jobs, comfortably above the official consensus of 214k as well as the unofficial 'whisper' number of 232k--investors expected a hot report, but not this hot.

Big intraday swings going on--Treasury yields down 5bps, stock indices are now firmly negative on the day, while gold and oil rally further. This has the flavor of a risk-off reaction to some of the news coming out regarding the Middle East.

The U.S. isn't the only country to see rate cuts being priced out--the EU, UK and Canada also started the year at 6-7 cuts, but rates traders now expect just 3-4.

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Atl Fed President Bostic indicated on CNBC that if the economy evolves as he thinks it will, he supports one rate cut this year in Q4. If that takes us to the Nov meeting, it would be the longest pause between a hike and cut ever.

A look at some major currencies since early March (all weaker vs USD) and gold. Notable gains from gold here despite dollar strength.

The 10-Year Treasury yield has surged to 4.39%, surpassing the 4.35% level that served as a bit of resistance. Interest rates haven't been this high since November, so it'll be interesting to see how stocks react if this rise in yields persists.

Hard to imagine IG credit spreads narrowing further but given that dealers expect bond issuance to fall in April, we might see them make a push toward their mid-2021 lows if economic data keeps behaving.