Mortgage Rate Lock-In and Homeowners’ Moving Plans libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/mortga… via Liberty St Economics #macro #Hope

Pls retweet the survey (not this post) - would like to see a large sample.

Without context, if interest rates grind lower will you be more or less bullish on equities? #macro

SA adjusted initial claims up to 231,000 this week, lag from the January data in job cuts kicking in?

Market doesn’t mind the cooler yields *for now* as highlighted by Kantro’s sweet spot.

Good news for bonds (yields) and stocks in a backdrop of negatively correlated markets where everybody is looking at everything through an inflation lens. Macro investor behavior > micro fundamentals. #macro #hopE

Is this the first time a sitting president has acknowledged Bad is Good for stocks? Also, for those who say politicization of Fed is illegitimate discussion -- this is 2nd time Biden's tied expectations for cuts directly to his view on economy

Another reason I continue to view economic data as 'borderline.' I'm not convinced we have enough evidence to expect a recession with high confidence, but we clearly can't rule one out either.

Two of these 'Lite' version components h/t Kantro and Danielle DiMartino Booth

The Fed start announcing policy decisions in 1994. Before then you just found out after the fact, and were often surprised. #macro #hope

I’m not using the Sahm rule, but sure I’ll answer your question. November 1990 is one of examples. This is indirect causation through lower interest rates. #macro #hopE

SLOOS (dig in)

Cuts will be here before you know it if the trend continues .. and I think it will. The Fed won’t wait for inflation IF this continues (they never do). #macro #hopE

Happy Saturday 🌞Great song ..
open.spotify.com/track/41ww8W0W…