Firs reading of the ECB statement: the 50 bps hike is “reactive” to the recent inflation dataflow, but they dropped the tightening bias for the future. We are now is “extreme data dependence”. Fwd guidance truly dead this time.

Let’s introduce a new concept: ultra-conditional forward guidance 😀. In all fairness, it’s the best posture the ECB could adopt in the circumstances.

Migration des dépôts : la vitesse compte. gilles Moec chef économiste d’AXA analyse les conséquences de l’érosion de la base des dépôts constatée aux Etats-Unis sur les futures décisions de politique monétaire. agefi.fr/news/economie-…

In this week's #Macrocast, gilles Moec , AXA Group Chief Economist and Head of AXA IM Research, explores what the Fed and the ECB "know" and what they have to "guess". Read how the balance of signals is different ➡ axa-im.com/news-and-exper… #AXAIMInvestmentInsitute #FED #ECB

Now at #IIFBrussels: how has the war in Ukraine changed the European economic landscape? @RobinBrooksIIF discusses with Beata Javorcik The EBRD, Moritz Kraemer @LBBW, gilles Moec AXA, and Mahmood Pradhan Amundi

Très grande tristesse. Je ne sais pas ce que j’admirais le plus chez lui: la fulgurance de son esprit, son ouverture, sa capacité à faire comprendre intuitivement les raisonnements théoriques les plus complexes, ou son humanité. Quelle perte! lemonde.fr/disparitions/a…

Balanced ECB package. The hike is offset by the notion that rates - if maintained for long- have reached a level consistent with “making a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to target”. Still some wiggle room, but hard not to conclude the ECB is “done”

ECB sounds more concerned about real growth and increasingly confident they have put inflation on the right track. They don’t want to rock the boat, and saying the 2 main ideas to speed up the decrease of the balance sheet were not even discussed is another sign of that.

Choc et tristesse d’apprendre la disparition brutale de Philippe Martin. Un macro-économiste brillant, dont l’élégance de la pensée reflétait l’élégance de l’homme.

Still a few things to get “enough confidence” on inflation properly landing in the US …

In this podcast Tim Gwynn Jones asks highly pointed questions about the events I described in my new book. Worth the time of all #BankingUnion nerds out there!