Innerhalb einer (1!) Woche hatten wir: * Attentat auf Trump; * Nominierung JD Vance; * Rückzug Biden; * de-facto-Nominierung Harris. Bis zum 5.11. sind's noch fünfzehn (15!) Wochen. Mein Tipp: Traue niemandem, der jetzt schon weiß, wie die Wahl ausgeht! 😜 zdf.de/nachrichten/po…

👇 concrete developments in bilateral relations. I do recommend reading the 👌chapter Nicolai von Ondarza & Eva Heidbreder on 🇩🇪-🇬🇧 bilateral relations in our recent UK in a Changing Europe Hussein Kassim report to get view of where there are opportunities & where challenges lie: ukandeu.ac.uk/other-publicat…

🇬🇧🇩🇪That was fast: British and German defence ministers have signed a “joint declaration to enhance defence cooperation”, with quite a few interesting elements. Short 🧵: gov.uk/government/new…

On France sabotage, so far we have: - French sources pointing vaguely at far-left - Israel FM pointing at Iran & proxies - Everyone generally suspicious of Russia - No actual evidence

Wer hat Lust, an der SWP Berlin mit Kolleg:innen von SWP Eastern Europe & Eurasia u.a. zur OSZE zu forschen? Hier ist die Gelegenheit! 👇👇👇 swp-berlin.org/karriere/stell…

After Ireland has set the example, increasingly looks like the majority of EU national governments will both ignore Ursula von der Leyen demand to propose two different candidates for the EU Commission and propose only one, usually male candidate.

The framing of a 'secret senior team' sounds a bit too much conspiratorial to me. Given the likelihood of Trump's return as US President is at least at 50-50, the EU and any government would be neglecting their duty if they would not think through and prepare for the scenario.

Duncan Robinson Also worth adding that research shows that, historically, in the UK, around 8/10 manifesto pledges are (broadly defined) implemented, from which two points arise: (1) how much does anyone notice the 2/10 that aren't and (2) voters *still* think parties don't keep their promises!

Greek unemployment rate reaches single digits, falling to 9.6% in June 2024 and inching towards EU average. A remarkable chart showing all the blood, sweat and difficulties the Greeks had to survive due to the Greek crisis. And survive they did, despite what many predicted.

Kürzlich fragte mich jemand per Email, ob ich auch nach den Veröffentlichungen von Charap/Radchenko und der New York Times zu den ukrainisch-russischen Waffenstillstandsgesprächen 2022 bei meiner Aussage bliebe, #Putin hätte nie ernsthaft verhandelt. Hier ist meine Antwort:

Another noteworthy case of the centre-right supporting the far-right - According to @PoliticoEurope, the Bulgarian Revival Party got support from the centre-right for an Anti-LGBTQ law. Note: Revival is a founding member with the AfD of the new far-far-right ESN group in the EP.

Summer reading - and tellingly, the non-fiction book is much more optimistic about AI than the fiction book.

"The ambition is thus high.  But to be successful, three challenges need to be tackled." 🚨 NEW: Nicolai von Ondarza and Claudia Major on why Labour's European 'reset' starts in Germany with defence cooperation. ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-europe…

Chancellor Scholz will host Keir Starmer this week in Berlin. Get ready for the visit by reading our analysis (with Nicolai von Ondarza) on how Labour's European re-set starts in Berlin, with defence 👇 SWP Europe SWP International Security UK in Germany

The appointment of Barnier has a very Mario Draghi, Italian technocratic PM vibe to it - not a political threat to the various parties and leaders, but at least he commands respect and could keep the ship sailing for an interim period - if he can secure a majority in Parliament

Interesting research on what is happening to academic twitter - fits my observation that the major organisation stay on Twitter/X, while more individuals move away. And if major orgs create alternative handles on bluesky, they often dont use it yet. blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocial…