This post a bit longer than normal as it is script of lecture I gave at Stanford last week looking at how concerns about nuclear escalation influenced US policy on Russia-Ukraine War. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/esc…

1/4 Aftermath of the Ukrainian drone strike on the Rosneft oil depot in Razdorovo, Smolensk Oblast, on Apr. 24th, as seen in a Planet satellite image captured this morning, on April 27th.

According to DeepState UA, Russian forces have captured Berdychi and advanced west of the village, occupied 80% of Ocheretyne, and advanced in Kyslivka.
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deepstatemap.live/en#14/49.6390/…

More horrible news. A stringer for Reuters in Moscow has been arrested (for some alleged other/prior work) according to the court.

Konstantin Gabov, a journalist and video producer, will now face trial and jail in Russia. Local staff always at highest risk

Not all lessons from Ukraine will apply to NATO militaries, but this is one that will. Russian Orlan ISR UAVs are not very sophisticated but they are cheap and easy to produce. That means Russia produces them in large numbers and they are expendable. But many of the current…

'Orlan' is one of the main Russian reconnaissance drones in the war against Ukraine

Among scientists and analysts studying changes within the russian army and their weapon systems during the military conflicts of recent decades, 2014 is considered a turning point. It can be…

View from the cabin of Yak-52 which helped to down a Russian drone over Odesa today.
t.me/serhii_flash/2…

Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne

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The Ukrainian Air Force says that Russia launched 34 missiles overnight, including:
- 9 Kh-101 / Kh-555 from Tu-95MS strategic bombers
- 9 Kh-59 / Kh-69
- 2 S-300
- 2 Iskander-K
- 4 Kinzhal from MiG-31K aircraft
- 8 Kalibr cruise missiles
The increased use of Kh-59/69 missiles…

Russian ZU-23-2 decoy.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Illia Yevlash, the Head of Public Relations for Ukraine’s Air Force, said a Russian Su-57 fighter launched a Kh-59 or Kh-69 missile at Kryvyi Rih yesterday.
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…

Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar.
deepstatemap.live/en#16/49.6407/…
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