This is a bit off the mark. The Fed (or any CB doing market intervention) will have balance sheet losses. That's part of mark-to-market.

The missed point is that there are no speculative CB positions. The 'buyer of last resort' is a macroprudential framework. Those losses are…

It’s amazing how often “the fate of nations—nay, of civilization itself— hangs in the balance” gets trotted out as an explanation for basic cross-currency asset-liability matching issues.

Recently discovered evidence that I am planning to do an industrial revolution:

Timber bubble ends with lumber puncture.

New at THE OVERSHOOT:

Is Nominal Wage Growth Starting to Slow?

theovershoot.co/p/is-nominal-w…

<-- The April numbers suggest that the recent slowdown in average hourly pay growth since January could be something more than a fluke. That would be a big deal.

As a onetime FX professional who remains intellectually engaged with the subject, I would like to remind everyone that it is entirely possible to have a view (whether right or wrong) about a currency’s trading direction without lapsing into monomania or outright looniness.

Karthik Sankaran Tfw you can’t grasp ex post vs ex ante lol.

Every so often you see a tweet and you go, “oh it bounced me into “for you” from “following.”

Japan NIIP c. +65% GDP
Greece NIIP c. -135% GDP

I’ve spent the past year diving deep into Chinese debt with AidData. It’s been a lot of fun.

Key realization: Reserve diversification, not geopolitics, was the primary driver of the post GFC Chinese international lending boom.

Brad’s new paper looks great.

Tell Bloomberg Terminal “Now Is Your Dis Of The Summers Content.”

DJT is not an accounting play; it's an accountability play.

Karthik Sankaran the largest cruise ship in the world was built in Finland.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icon-clas…

America is destined to push out the Citrus Frontier. Between a Syracuse grad and the other guy, the highest echelon of our political class is composed of experienced Orange men.

Mon nouvel article, en français et en anglais

Mon père, un vrai francophile, devrait être fier