Apartment market is clearly slowing. Could get interesting given supply wave coming. Charts below are #Denver & #Austin , but many markets look similar.

Supports shadow-supply thesis possibly impacting LT single-family rental industry. “My hope is that I’m not making the wrong move…that I’m leaving the market in time — before everyone else says [they] need to find long-term tenants.” ⁦⁦Levi Sumagaysay⁩ marketwatch.com/story/airbnb-h…

Great chart! If possible, I'd love to see this broken down for just the US Jamie Lane. Guessing similar trend, maybe even higher percentage than global since 2020.

A lot of 'steamrollers and elephants' roaming about real estate and broader markets these days.

September home prices deteriorated further, namely big West Coast markets. #LosAngeles and #SanFrancisco home prices have already dropped -11% from spring 2022 peaks per our index. #SanDiego and #Seattle not far behind, with home prices down -9% from peaks earlier this year.

Pace of home builder price increases continued slowing YOY in September. Rate of change implies new home prices have been falling since late spring. Very likely this chart ends the year flat to slightly down given market momentum we're picking up on the ground.

Good read from ⁦Conor Sen⁩ on apartment cooldown and what it could mean for inflation. We’re seeing slowing in single-family rents as well, which will help bring wonky OER component of CPI down eventually (big lag). bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

The narrative 'home prices won't fall like GFC' isn't going to hold up in some markets, namely Texas. #Houston , #Dallas , and #Austin saw GFC peak-to-trough price drops of just -2% to -3.5%. We've exceeded those declines already in Houston and Austin, and are very close in Dallas.

Single-family rents are finally cooling in some of the 99 markets we track and forecast. It'll be interesting to watch rental markets where institutional ownership is 15% to 20%+ of rentals. Wondering if big operators price rents to 'meet the market' faster to maintain occupancy.

Going through our local housing market price forecasts. Solid chance more than just a few markets will already flip to 0% or slightly negative for full year 2022 given pace of deceleration we're seeing in the data.

Even resale agents are coming around to the idea of home prices falling. Of the 1,000 agents we survey, very few now see prices rising. Expecting full month of September results to look worse given big move in rates.

Seems like housing industry is waking up to harsh reality that home prices can fall even if supply doesn’t rise.

Knocking on the door of 7% mortgage rates given big moves again today in 10-year Treasury market...

Lennar and KB Home just announced walking away from 19,000 lots combined in their most recent quarter (10,000 for $LEN and 9,000 for $KBH). This trend came through clearly in our land survey, where 21% of land brokers noted land buyers dropping some deals.

Getting close to implied 7% mortgage rates given big move in 10-year rates today…

Interesting comments from $KBH CEO today on homebuyers avoiding adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). 'We have some great and compelling interest rates on 10-year ARMs...Couple of hundred basis points lower than 30-year fixed, and nobody is taking it so far.'

#Boise weekly home purchase loan lock data shows home values rolling over since April. The most recent print is through first week of September (susceptible to mix-shift noise), but the trend down is very clear. Loan lock data leads the eventual sale price data getting reported.