This would be great, obviously, but nothing Labour have said so far would get close to achieving it.

And that is not a safe seat - Lib Dems slight favourites to win (albeit with a big majority to overturn) and have a strong candidate in Mike Martin 🔶.

My piece about the role of education in the election (and beyond).

Definitely not going to need any tax rises after the election...

It is kind of perfect that this guy is apparently an expert in disaster management.

Oh wow. In a rare move, the High Court has issued an order for the government to formally inform it of 'the earliest date on which the Government intend to begin removals to Rwanda'

Because Rishi Sunak's media statement on Thursdsy directly contradicted its own legal arguments

Labour has put out a gloriously baroque document with *one hundred and one* questions for the Tories on national service...

People should follow Paula Surridge - she's such a great analyst. Always spots stuff others miss.

Just sent out our first daily election briefing.

We were going to start on Thursday but we're a bunch of excitable nerds and wanted to get going.

This one is by J and looks at the voting intention and leader rating polls so far.

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/wel…

Without the adjustment the results of this poll would be:

Lab 43%
Con 26%
Reform 10%
LD 10%
Green 6%

Also margin of error movement.

JLP make a complex 'don't know' adjustment which is why they typically have one of the lower Labour leads. (Along with Opinium.)

Daily Mail isn't my cup of tea but they can report whatever they like as long as it's not libellous.

OTOH I have no idea what the policy thought they were doing interviewing Rayner under caution when they clearly had no jurisdiction, as they now acknowledge.

First poll on the national service proposal. Unsurprisingly an age divide...

But even really popular policies rarely change things during an election. One's with an even split definitely don't.

Again no significant movement.

(The very large sample doesn't make much difference to the topline - gives you a slightly smaller margin of error - but does give you bigger sub-samples.)

Reeves being ahead of Hunt on the economy is an underplayed factor in Labour's position - hasn't been true for any shadow chancellor since 2010.

Margin of error movement again but FWIW that's the biggest Labour lead Survation have had since November 2022 at the point Sunak took over.