Good Morning from #Germany , where 10y Bund yields have risen to 2.52%. The yield was still well below 2% at the end of December. But the entire yield curve has moved upwards, becoming a brake on the German construction industry.

Hey guys, make sure to catch my weekly newsletter 'What did I learn this week.' I discuss lessons of Bitcoin Halving, GenZ, who are used to not having to take action themselves but who demand debt from other people, & where yield pain point is for stocks. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

Good Morning from #Germany , which is against taking on more common EU debt. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that EU member states should take responsibility for their own finances. Lindner is trying to shut down discussion of another joint borrowing initiative as

To put things into perspective: In the US, the risk-free yield is now higher than the risky stock market yield. 10y US yields have jumped to 4.62 this week while S&P 500 earnings yield (1/PE ratio) trades at 4.21%.

An exciting stat from Goldman: Just 10y ago, the collective market cap of the Mag 7 was $1.5tn. Today, that stands at $13.5tn.

With markets moving to price out future rate cuts (rate cuts of less than 40bps are priced in until the end of the year), the US Treasury curve continues to shift higher. (via SRP)

Good Morning from #Germany , where inflation expectations have recently risen significantly. The markets are pricing in 2.15% over a 10y horizon, which is not far off the ECB's inflation target of 2%, but he markets obviously expecting ECB to cut rates in case of doubt, even if

S&P raised  #Greece ’s credit outlook to positive from stable, just mths after rating agency upped country to investment grade, a status lost in 2010. Greece’s rating was affirmed at BBB-. Debt ratio is seen declining to 152.3% of GDP in 2024 from a high of 206% in 2020. (via BBG)

US equity valuations are still high relative to the macro environment, Goldman says. Measured by gap between actual Shiller cyclically-adj S&P 500 P/E ratio and the “macro-consistent” Shiller P/E predicted by Goldman macro model of equity valuations, US stocks are 40% overvalued.

OUCH! Nasdaq 100 fared worst weekly drop since Nov 2022 as US 10y yields pushed >4.6%.

To put things into perspective: Fewer than 30% of S&P 500 members trading above the 50-day moving average.

Good Morning from #Germany , where trade w/Iran has reached an almost complete standstill in recent years. The rolling 12-month volume of exports and imports amounts to just €1.5bn, at least according to official trade statistics. Some trade may be conducted via neighboring

Bad week for liquidity: #Fed balance sheet assets fell by $32.6bn to $7.405tn. The TGA rose by $91.6bn to a weekly avg of $796.5bn as tax payments boosted the TGA. Participation in the reverse repo facility fell by $5bn to $440bn.

The dollar's share of allocated FX reserves has fallen by 14ppts since 2001 amidst challenges from an increasingly multipolar world. But the Dollar is still the most dominant player. Morgan Stanley expects the dollar to retain its dominance: 'We think that investment theses

Good Morning from Germany, which may have avoided another recession. Acc to Bundesbank forecasts, GDP may have expanded in Q1 thanks to a pick-up in manufacturing, rising exports & surging construction at the start of the year. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Good Morning from Germany where the Greens have once again lost their status as the people's party. Latest Forsa poll shows Greens at 12%, lowest level since June 2018. 'The Greens have thus reverted to their traditional status as a clientele party for the upper education and

One of my favorite charts, which shows very nicely the consequences of the rise in yields for the stock market. Big Tech vs Non-Profitable Tech (long-duration stocks) curve tracks perfectly the US 10y yield rise.

Love that quote from today's Jared Dillian: 'I’ve seen some crazy things in markets, but I have not yet seen 2yr yields go up 7bps after a direct attack on Israel from Iran.'

OUCH! IMF has cut #Germany 's econ growth in 2024 to 0.2%, after projecting a 0.5% rise in its January forecast. Europe's biggest economy is predicted to have the weakest growth of all G7 industrialized nations for the current year. For 2025, IMF revised German growth to 1.3% from