#ECB 's Lagarde: Won't wait for 2% everywhere to make decisions.

ECB Lagarde: We are not Fed dependent. Says can't assume Eurozone inflation will mirror US inflation.

#ECB keeps interest rates on hold for 5th meeting as expected. Leaves Deposit Rate at 4.00%, ECB prepares markets for 1st rate cut in June. Euro weakened after the statement.

OOPS! German 10y inflation expectations crept higher. Rose to 2.13% from below 2% a month ago.

Good Morning on ECB day from #Germany , where key interest rates should be lower than they currently are, acc to Taylor Rule. Fair rate should be 4.35%, 15bps below current rate. However, this does not apply to entire Eurozone. There, main rate should be 50bps higher. This shows…

Goldman has changed their Fed call. Pushed back forecast of 1st rate cut from June to July. Expect cuts at a quarterly pace after that, which now implies 2 cuts in 2024 in July and Nov. Options trader have pared their rate-cut expectations for 2024 to <2.

#Fed expectations shifted further after hot inflation data. The market is now only assuming 41bp worth of reductions for the year (this contrasts with the 75bp guidance from the 3/20 meeting). (via Vital Knowledge Media)

US 10y yields jumped to 4.5% for 1st time since Nov after US inflation ticked up again in March.

US 2y yields jumped 16bps to 4.9%, highest since Nov, following hotter-than-expected US inflation data.

Global bond mkts sold off following hot US inflation data w/US 10y spikes to almost 4.5%.

OUCH! US March inflation rose more than expected, both headline and core inflation: CPI YoY rose 3.5%; vs +3.4% expected. Rose 0.4% MoM vs 0.3% expected. Core CPI YoY rose 3.8% vs 3.7% expected, and +0.4% on a monthly basis vs +0.3% expected.

Waiting for Godot: The consensus has been lowering the likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months to 35%, the lowest since Jul 2022. (Chart via Apollo's Slok)

Good Morning from Germany where the number of company bankruptcies hit another record high in March. Acc to the IWH econ institute, the number of insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in Germany rose by 9% MoM to 1,297 in March. Current number is also 35% higher than in…

Looks as if the #Momentum factor is stretched following one of best quarters in history for momentum. GS High-Beta Momentum Pair dropped 3.3% today due to Nvidia (-2%), Eli Lilly (-2.6%), Mastercard (-1,4%), Meta (-0.5%) vs higher Apple (+0.7%), Microsoft (+0.4%), Tesla (+2.3%).

Gold/Silver ratio has dropped to 83 after #Silver jumped >$28/oz.

Good Morning from #Germany where the trade balance dropped from €27.6bn in Jan to €21.4bn in Feb as the country's exports were down 2% MoM, while imports rose by 3.2% MoM. German exports to EU countries dropped by 3.9% on a monthly basis, deliveries to third countries grew by…

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon uses his annual shareholder letter to set a global agenda: Pro-America, pro-military, pro-Ukraine, pro-trade, pro-capitalism, pro-DEI, anti-China. Wrote: 'Ukraine's struggle is our struggle, and ensuring their victory is ensuring America first'. He…

Good Morning from #Germany where the industry shows some signs of life. German industrial production rose for a 2nd consecutive month in February, confirming the sector started the year better. The 2.1% MoM rise in industrial production was much better than 0.5% MoM increase…

In 2023 it was all about the Magnificent Seven. Then it was the Fabulous Four. But now the story is actually a lot more complicated, Apollo's Slok highlights.

It is not just volatility on the stock market (measured by VIX) that has returned. MOVE, which measures the volatility of bonds, has also risen by almost 10% this week.