Good Morning from #Germany, where the MDax of mid-cap stocks is falling at an above-average rate and govt bonds are also losing some of their premium vs. Eurozone bonds after populists surged in regional votes and pro-business FDP dropped to ~1%. Far-right AfD came in first in

Next shoe to drop: #Volkswagen is considering unprecedented factory closures in Germany in a bid for deeper cutbacks in another blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s govt. Any shutdowns would mark the 1st closures in Germany during the company’s 87y history, setting VW up for a clash

Good Morning from Germany, where deindustrialization is picking up speed. For the first time in its 87-year history, VW is considering closing factories in Germany—a move that breaks w/tradition and could lead to conflict w/unions. This decision highlights the deep troubles in

#Oil plummeted — erasing its gains for the year — after a deal to restore supplies from Libya turned traders’ attention back to concerns about tepid global demand for crude. Brent crude dip below $75/bbl to lowest since Dec 2023. (BBG)

OUCH! Nasdaq 100 plunged 3.15% in the biggest drop since July, w/Nvidia tumbled 9.5%.

Feeling the August vibes: Japan's Nikkei declines 3% while Yen gain almost 1%.

Good Morning from Germany, where the carmaker VW has played a pivotal role in the country's econ rise. The wages at key VW locations highlight how significant its impact on prosperity has been. Acc to the 2023 annual report, nearly 299,000 people were employed by VW in Germany at

OUCH! US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 and layoffs rose. Available positions decreased to 7.67mln from a downwardly revised 7.91mln reading in the prior month. The figure was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

US yield curve disinverts as soft labor data fuels Fed cut bets. 2s/10s yield spread briefly rose to +0.5bps as 2y yields slip below those on 10y. (BBG)

Good Morning from #Germany where factory orders unexpectedly rose for a 2nd month in a rare piece of good news for the country’s important manufacturing sector. Demand in July advanced 2.9% from June, while economists in a Bloomberg survey had estimated a 1.7% drop. The prior

LOL! #Russia President Putin says will 'support' Harris in US election, despite being a known sympathizer of Donald Trump. Putin said in response to a question at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok that President Joe

This Goldman chart shows that September is historically weak for global equities and risk assets w/avg return at -2.31%. Sept 16th has been a seasonal turning point, w/2H Sept being the worst performing 2 weeks of the year, BUT maybe this seasonality gets pre-traded by market

My favorite chart from BBG Intelligence shows that Yen Carry Trade has the potential to unwind further.

Chinese banks have built a $100bn short against the US dollar to prop up the yuan — and hedge funds are eager to get in on the trade. At the center of it all are transactions known as FX swaps. These have quietly become a key tool for state-run Chinese banks seeking to prop up

Good Morning from #Germany, where industrial production saw a sharp decline in July, largely due to a drop in car manufacturing. Output fell by 2.4% MoM, which was worse than expected. On the year, industrial production is down by >5%. The automotive sector was the main

This industrial production chart shows that #Germany's deindustrialization is picking up speed.

US jobs data mixed or "could have been worse, but not great," as Vital Knowledge Media puts it: "This release more than justifies the Fed going 50bps on 9/18." NFP increased 142k in Aug, below the expected 165k. Additionally, the prior 2mths were revised down a net -86k, w/July now at

Traders see 50% chance of Jumbo Fed cut as soft US jobs data fuels bond rally.

US 10y yields dropped to their lowest point since Jun 2023 as mkts worried about growth following the soft US jobs report.