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All this and much more in the report 👇

ifs.org.uk/publications/r…

HMT might like freezes as they can raise taxes / reduce benefits without anyone having a nominal fall in income. But there's a better way! You can specify that e.g. thresholds change by 'CPI minus 2%' - thus making certain the *real* change. See this screenshot for more detail

Second, they are uncertain. When it was announced, the income tax freeze was expected to raise £8bn. But inflation has been much higher than forecast, so it is now set to raise £30bn. Such huge swings in tax packages shouldn't be driven by unpredictable moves in inflation.

So, are freezes a good way to do policy? No, I don't think so, for two reasons.

First, freezes aren't transparent - especially the indefinite ones. They change the size & shape of the system, but in a stealthy way.

(One thing this analysis does not mean is that the mini Budget 'really' raised taxes. The mini Budget cut taxes by £43bn! All these freezes were in place before the mini Budget, and would have remained if it had never occurred)

On the other hand, the mini Budget tax cuts are in the context of a historically high tax burden - and even after the mini Budget, they remain high by historical standards.

Does this mean the government are 'really' raising taxes when they say they're cutting them? It's a bit complicated. On the one hand, some taxes other than the personal income taxes we study are going down (e.g. corporation tax or stamp duty), pushing down the overall tax burden.