Would AI be a decent judge in surfing, gymnastics, diving, and such?

D-Wade said "no one boxes out in the NBA." Well, some bigs do, pretty regularly. But guards rarely do, in part because offensive perimeter players rarely go to the glass.

In France's 9-point win over Canada, they shot 33-42 from the foul line vs Canada's 18-25. That was worth about 8 of the 9 point difference. That magnitude of difference occurs in ~1% of NBA games (not sure internationally).

France is shooting 22/33 (67%) on 2pt shots against Germany. That's big.

The Franz rebound moved Germany's win probability up to around 25%, but then the turnover brought it back down under 10%. Then Wemby missed 1/2 FTs, bringing Germany's win probability back up to about 15%. Dramatic sequence.

Germany win probability drops with every second off the clock, even with possession. Options get more limited.

Team USA was a 15.5 pt favorite against Serbia. Now down 11 at halftime to them. Half of that 15.5 is about 8, which means that, even if the USA is that much better than Serbia, they're still an underdog entering the 2nd half.

Of the 11 pt deficit to Serbia, ~2 pts on 2s, 3 pts on 3s, 2 on free throws, 2 on the glass, and the remainder is a turnover difference. The USA is losing all of the Four Factors.

Not sure how accurate it is yet, but I applaud the attempt and approach, at least.

In the theme of nature vs nurture, here is a study on some basic fitness elements.

Allstate College Football Predictor, with odds of making the playoffs and some simulation of what happens with a team that you pick. espn.com/espn/feature/s…

I got the advance proofs this weekend.

In my book, I call Russell Westbrook the Most Interesting Player in the NBA. I was around him and I studied him both before and after we worked together. What Chuck says about him is right, but there is a lot more.

My old boss, Mark Warkentien, told me that there are times you manage the season instead of the game. This is an interesting example.

For a while, I kept track of preseason expectations for the NBA. It's a fairly straightforward exercise but useful to see the range and to see how they can move with new info. espn.com/nba/insider/st…

A Nike-sponsored sports analytics event. Open to all high school students, not just HS girls. Registration by 9/16. greenvelope.com/card/.public-a…

Did John McEnroe just say, "You don't get to be #1 in the world without having composure." John McEnroe? The guy who melted down on-court regularly? I wish Fowler had jokingly tossed that back at him. John has a sense of humor about it now.

Caitlin Clark's performance curve got steeper a bit before the Olympics break, as ESPN's tracker of rookie performance shows. Corresponds with Fever 9-3 push for playoffs, too. (espn.com/wnba/story/_/i…)

Clever, both on the tactic and the identification of it.

The ESPN 4th down decision tracker for every game is here: espnanalytics.com/decision