Great paper, and Amanda is an incredible scholar. Hire her!

my non scientific perspective here is: how can this constellation of evidence (these numbers plus high levels in states like FL) lead us to believe she'll do worse than Biden in 2020?

I love that the model is sentient in these tweets

There's a Certain Kind of Person on here that loves to point out that yes, of course, the thing your methods paper find is obvious, idiot. Those among Us outside of acedemia have known this for years, we wouldn't write about it of course

what is your biggest pet peeve? tim walz: when someone’s going too darn slow in the left hand lane! jd vance: the obsolete fallopian tubes of the postmenopausal female

Lmao

One way to interpret this is he is saying that his financial success has come from exploiting ignorance of probability and statistics.

Good thread from the very thoughtful Elliot Morris

OK, well I guess it's as good a time as any to announce I'm looking for a postdoc at Princeton -- areas are politics, machine learning and statistics. Please share widely! puwebp.princeton.edu/AcadHire/apply…

what is your favorite panel data estimator overview paper these days?

.Indiana University Department of Political Science has some truly fantastic grad students on the market this year. Let me tell you about them: 1/🧵

Oh god, not this shit again nytimes.com/2024/09/05/opi…

I feel like this would be like saying, hey, I really enjoy woodworking as a hobby. I should do that job. And then you hate that job