I'm doing a weekly Under the Radar Bets column each week -- posting Thursdays this year -- and Week 1's is up! A bit of an abridged version because so many of my go-tos (defensive player props!) are not up right now. I'll keep track of how the column doess throughout the year,

We have clear go here on 4th-and-1.

Clear go on 4th-and-1. 55% breakeven percentage, 68% conversion probability.

We're going to have this one as a go, too.

OK the 4th-and-4 kick decision was actually right near the edge -- narrow lean toward go.

Game-saving play by Trenton Simpson.

Love that Ravens didn't spike it. Snapped with ~20 seconds left and it's feasible to get 4 plays out of that.

If Ravens score, both PAT and going for 2 would be acceptable options. If it were me: I'd go for 2.

QBRs from the opener: Patrick Mahomes 66 Lamar Jackson 61

Chris Jones lined up at edge on 42% of his snaps last night, compared to 18% last season.

Isiah Pacheco had -15 rush yards over expectation in the opener, per Next Gen Stats.

Receiving yards distributions for tonight's game. Note: these are independent forecasts for each player, they're just plotted together.

Betting column ahead of Week 1! I laid out the ground rules for the story because it's important to me to track results. And then we got into receiver alt lines and other stuff. Hopefully sacks to come in the future! espn.com/espn/betting/i…

Week 1 game guide: analysis, predictions and picks from NFL Nation writers, Kalyn Kahler, Moody and me! espn.com/nfl/story/_/id…

Sack forecast for tonight's game!

We have a go here on 4th-and-goal at the 5

Bryce Huff: only 43% of defensive snaps played so far, per Next Gen Stats.

Eagles 4th-and-2 at PHI 40. WP Go: 45.8% WP Punt: 44.3%

Packers 4th-and-5 from the 8.