As we saw last week following a sloppy Treasury auction, Government bonds will likely remain valuation-challenged in this era of fiscal dominance. As a result, I think it will be difficult for longer-dated Treasuries to venture much below a 4-handle. But at least they are once

It’s important to consider the negatives as well. For one, as we saw in July, the mega caps have become so mega that wherever they go, the headline indices will follow. So, if this is the start of a lasting rotation and broadening, recent history suggests that it could well be

The big question is whether this is indeed a major unraveling of the mega growers, or just a squall on the way to new highs. I don’t have the answer, but it’s worth noting that the performance of the Mag 7 and NVDA in particular is on par with past parabolas. However, whenever

we are now in the seasonally “wobbly” time of year, lasting from August through the first half of October.

the Presidential cycle (which holds that years 3 and 4 are the strongest), we are now in month 8 of the 4th year, which suggests that most of the tailwinds are now behind us.

Playa bound.

As soon as I put the pen down on this week’s WAAR, my family and I will get in a rented “extra capacity” SUV and drive the 500 miles from Santa Barbara to Reno, NV. The next morning, we will pick up our food and other supplies and make the 100 mile trek to Black Rock City (aka

As tempting as it might have been to “sell in May,” that strategy has not really worked since the financial crisis in 2008. The orange line below shows that a buy-and-hold strategy has yielded much better returns than a “sell in May” approach.

Following the weaker Purchasing Managers and jobs reports, speculation abounded about whether the “big one” was finally upon us, prompting expectations of 50 bps rate cuts from the Fed. Since then, jobless claims have moderated, and so have expectations of jumbo cuts. I suspect

with Q2 earnings season now behind us, we can see that the quarter produced the customary 300-500 bps bounce. Q2 earnings are 13.3% higher than a year ago. Pretty good. We remain in that phase of the market cycle where earnings are now doing the heavy lifting, while valuation

One by-product of the emerging Fed easing cycle is that the US is now potentially transitioning from a period of fiscal expansion and monetary restriction to a regime where the Fed (presumably) returns to a neutral policy, while the fiscal expansion continues. It could bring us

Burning Man is never without its logistical or weather-related challenges, but this was a truly great burn, in no small part due to our group of highly diverse but like-minded individuals who rallied for a common cause. In the end, we served between 6,000 and 7,000 meals, not