First 7-day advisory issued on West Pac 91W. Should become another large and strong typhoon. Could impact Okinawa in 5 days and move inland south of Shanghai in a little over 6 days.

At the time of this satellite image, Fernanda in the East Pacific was classified as a 65kt hurricane. Question, knowing nothing about its past history, would this satellite image indicate this feature should be upgraded to a hurricane? Looking more like a remnant low now.

We have Invest 90L in east Caribbean with a 70-80% chance of developing. It has a clear circulation with convection closer to center than TS Emily. No consistency in classification.

Our ensembles-based TRAC guidance says Lee is very unlikely to pass within 125mi (200km) of East U.S. Coast. Could still produce TS wind in Cape Cod as it passes, though, as it will be very large by then.

#Lee is Nova Scotia-bound as far as its landfall. Only a 5-10% chance of center passing within 125mi. of NE U.S. coast. However, since TS wind field will expand significantly as it passes well east of Cape Cod, could see some 35-45 mph wind there. Very large waves, too.

Storm center will form along cold front off SE U.S. Friday. Big question is whether it can detach from the front and become a named storm. GFS says yes and has 60 mph TS into NC Saturday morning. ECMWF says purely frontal. Either solution means strong wind along coast Fri/Sat.

Low center forming 400 mi south of Cape Hatteras. GFS & EC in good agreement on track north into the Outer Banks Saturday. GFS has wind to 60 mph, EC has wind to 45-50 mph. Low appears to be frontal, not tropical, but the NHC could call it a subtropical storm and name it.

It is unclear why the India Meteorological Department is still calling the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal a "deep depression" with 30 kt wind. Dvorak has been 3.0 for 18 hrs. Microwave shows an eye forming. It is not a depression, IMD.

Not much change in overnight models. GFS has a hurricane in Caribbean next Thu. ICON indicates a depression. Canadian and Euro just a weak area of low pressure. ICON may be the best to follow for now - sheared depression vs. the GFS' hurricane.

Looks like the German ICON is on board with the GFS on development of TS in western Caribbean next Thu-Fri. Nothing at all in EC and CMC. NHC says 20% next 7 days. That may be a bit low. I'd say 50-60% now of at least a TD forming within 7 days.

Water temperatures are certainly way above normal in the MDR already. Closest match I could find to last year's temps was April 24th, 2023, though this years temps are still warmer east of 40W.

SSTs in the Main Development Region east of the Caribbean on Feb. 25 compare favorable to last April 27. Right image is same time last February. Water temps are about 2 months ahead of last year. Big question is whether the atmosphere will be favorable for development?

We have issued our second advisory on what we are calling Disturbance 3 (Invest 91L). I expect NHC to initiate PTC advisories on PTC One soon. It's within 48 hrs of causing TS wind in NE Mexico or south TX.

The entire Northern Hemisphere is below-normal in terms of ACE so far. Not a single TS in the East Pac, and only one typhoon in the NW Pac. Northern Hemisphere ACE is only 21% of normal. The Atlantic remains quiet, despite predictions of hyperactivity. What's going on?

We began issuing advisories on what we call Disturbance 7 (Invest 95L) yesterday morning. Could become a hurricane threat to Barbados Monday. Long range looks like landfall in Central America next Friday. Doesn't appear to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Our 7-day TRAC guidance indicates a landfall in Belize or northern Honduras next Friday. Less than a 5% chance it comes within 200km (125 mi) of the southern Gulf. Still could survive and make it into the southern Bay of Campeche in 8 days.

Spokes have appeared in Beryl's eye. Reminds me of Isabel in 2003. Mesovortices often rotate around the inner eyewall of major hurricanes.

Three 50 mph tropical storms in the East & Central Pacific, but one of them is not like the others. Gilma has no convection. It's just an open swirl of clouds. Objective Dvorak is 1.5, yet apparently one agency has it at 3.5, which is why the NHC went with 50 mph, apparently.