Lately many people have asked me "do you really trust the government data on inflation?" So, I checked a few of my past grocery receipts and, yep, the BLS data is about right: grocery prices for me are up 20-25% over the past 4-5 years Receipts: economistwritingeveryday.com/2024/08/28/gro…

NEW: The United States should ideally have 3 million apprentices a year. Right now we have 642,000. That’s double what we had a decade ago. But still really small. We need a big push to expand apprenticeships. Young people love that they can “earn while they learn”. And

For Labor Day: Earn and Learn programs like apprenticeship can play a key role in providing skills to non-college bound Americans, as Heather Long notes: washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

New - Kamala Harris is proposing a $50K tax deduction for startup expenses (10X increase to current deduction) New rollout includes: - Incentives to get local govs 2 cut red tape - Occupational licensing reform - CDFI expansion More econ policies coming washingtonpost.com/business/2024/…

Job openings fell to 7.7 million in July -- the lowest level since January 2021. Hiring picked up to 3.5% in July, up from 3.3% in June. That's encouraging after some weak jobs data. The bottom line: The hot job market is over. It's getting harder to get hired, but the overall

A series of data-release missteps at BLS-Labor Statistics has raised questions about how the agency shares information and whether it has been giving an unfair advantage to Wall Street. Experts fear the incidents could undermine confidence in government statistics. Jeanna Smialek and I dig

The first big applause for former President Trump at the Economic Club of New York is when he says: "I'll make America the world capital for crypto and Bitcoin." - Trump

What is Trump's plan to make childcare more affordable? We're going to raise billions from tariffs and we can use some of that to help, Trump says at Econ Club of New York. [In other words, there is no plan]

Job gains in August: +142,000. Nice bounce in construction, healthcare and hospitality. Otherwise most industries slowing down. Hospitality +46,000 Construction +34,000 Healthcare +31,000 Local gov't +22,000 Social aid +13,000 Finance +11,000 Biz services +8,000

The big picture on jobs: There's been a big slowdown in hiring. Most companies aren't doing layoffs yet, but there's a real danger that could come soon. The Fed should cut 50bps on Sept. 18. Almost every metric has worsened: Unemployment rate now: 4.2% (vs. 3.8% a year ago)

The Fed will cut on September 18. But how much? Their decision will tell us a lot about how Fed leaders want to handle risk management. The economy is clearly cooling. Does the Fed want to try to halt that with a 50bps cut? Or is the Fed comfortable with a 25bps cut and 'wait

Must-read Heather Long column on the "thin-ice conditions" facing the US economy, arguing for a decisive cut to interest rates washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…