New: Signal or Noise Ep 24 🚦📣

Facing Your Biggest Retirement Fears...

w/ Peter Mallouk

youtube.com/watch?v=1XBryw…

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) remained at 2.8% in March, above expectations for a decline to 2.7%.

Overall PCE rose to 2.7% (expectations: 2.6%), highest reading since last October.

Any remaining chance of June rate cut is gone after this report.

Market expectations for Fed Funds Rate:
-May 1, 2024: Hold
-June 12, 2024: Hold
-July 31, 2024: Hold
-Sep 18, 2024: 25 bps cut to 5.00-5.25%
-Nov 7, 2024: Hold
-Dec 18, 2024: Hold

Google Revenues (Billions)...
2024 (est): 344
2023: 307
2022: 283
2021: 258
2020: 183
2019: 162
2018: 137
2017: 111
2016: 90
2015: 75
2014: 66
2013: 56
2012: 46
2011: 38
2010: 29
2009: 24
2008: 22
2007: 17
2006: 11
2005: 6.1
2004: 3.2* (IPO: Aug 2004)
2003: 1.5
2002: 0.4
$GOOGL

Microsoft's revenues increased 17% over the last year to a new 1st quarter high of $61.9 billion. Net income grew 20% YoY to $21.9 billion (2nd highest quarter ever). Operating profit margins moved up to 45% from 42% a year ago. $MSFT

Google's revenues increased 15% over the last year to a new 1st Q high of $80.5 billion. Net income increased 57% YoY to a record $23.7 billion. Operating margins moved up to 32% from 25% a year ago. Also approved 1st quarterly dividend ($0.20) & $70 billion for buybacks. $GOOGL

US gas prices have increased 18% so far this year, moving up to their highest level since last October ($3.79/gallon national average).

The US economy has now been in an expansion for 48 months (4 years) with annualized real GDP growth of 4.6% over that time.

The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US moved up to 7.17% this week, highest since last November. 3 years ago the mortgage rate was below 3%.

Monthly mortgage payment needed to buy the median priced home for sale in the US...
April 2020: $1,480
April 2021: $1,690
April 2022: $2,400
April 2023: $2,550
April 2024: $2,840 (record high)

That's a 92% increase over the last 4 years.

Meta's Reality Labs, Operating Loss (Billions)
Q1 2024: -$3.8
Q4 2023: -$4.6
Q3 2023: -$3.7
Q2 2023: -$3.7
Q1 2023: -$4.0
Q4 2022: -$4.3
Q3 2022: -$3.7
Q2 2022: -$2.8
Q1 2022: -$3.0
Q4 2021: -$3.3
Q3 2021: -$2.6
Q2 2021: -$2.4
Q1 2021: -$1.8
Q4 2020: -$2.1
Total Loss (Q4 2020 -…

'Having loads of liquidity lets us sleep well. Moreover, during the episodes of financial chaos that occasionally erupt in our economy, we will be equipped both financially and emotionally to play offense while others scramble for survival.” - Warren Buffett

Meta reported a 27% increase in revenues (highest YoY growth rate since 2021), a 117% increase in net income, and operating margins of 38% (up from 25% a year ago).

Meanwhile, the stock was down 15% in after hours trading.

Expectations are everything in markets.

$META

'You have to be wildly optimistic to believe that corporate profits as a percent of GDP can, for any sustained period, hold much above 6%.' - Warren Buffett, 1999

Meta revenues increased 27% over the last year, its highest growth rate since Q3 2021. Net income increased 117% YoY to $12 billion. Operating margins increased to 38% from 25% a year ago. Headcount down 10% YoY to 69k employees. $META

Global Central Bank Update:
-Indonesia hiked rates for the 8th time, 25 bps move to 6.25%.