BANG....UST 2s vs 30s flips positive for the first time since July 2022....MBS bonds are about to jump As noted in the Odd Lots podcast >>> omny.fm/shows/odd-lots… and detailed on pages 8/9 >> convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl… Tracy Alloway Joe Weisenthal Michael Green Jim Bianco

New Commentary... convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl… We all know the FED is going to ease at some point; and they have told us via the DOTs that their terminal rate will be near 2.50%. As such, the next big money trade will be discerning when and how the FED will start to cut their

New Commentary The most important topic for Professional Investors is "The Cost of Carry" - what it costs to hold a position over time. Today I detail this concept in layman's terms for civilians. convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl… Michael Green Bill Gross Jeffrey Gundlach

$MTBA now has AUM of $461mm, with no seed money. Crushes the MBS Index ETFs in both coupon and YTM. Newly issued MBS are the best value in market; also a terrific way to play the Yield Curve steepener.

Grab a fork, bonds are done.... Unless you want to consider Fed hikes (which I do not) we have reached equilibrium with T2s nearing 5.0%.  I suppose T10s could push back to 4.75%, but without the Fed hiking, it could be hard to touch 5% again. This means it is time to sell

New Commentary... While never totally transparent, the medium-term path forward for interest rates is well lit. Via a combination of Politics, the Data, the Calendar, and Hubris (human ego) the FED is boxed in, and the most likely scenario is “one and done” until the election.

Bond market missed the memo: The ImpVol for UST 2yrs is 117nv: In plain English that indicates a 16% chance it will close above 5.85% and a 16% chance it will close below 4.05% on Election Day. This is just plain silly, the FED is "one and done" (as detailed in my latest

Bonds Have Had a Wild Ride. The Roller Coaster Is Coming to a Stop. barrons.com/articles/bond-… via @BarronsOnline Click below for my NYSE-listed newly-issued MBS Strategy convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl…

Boom.....Powell said it: "It's unlikely the next move will be higher" Buy my NYSE Listed newly-issued MBS strategy (ticker available) Yield ~ 6.01%; Dur ~ 4.4 convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl… Michael Green David Rosenberg Jim Bianco Andy Constan Erik Townsend 🛢️ Lyn Alden

Do I have stand in Times Square in a thong to grab your attention ? Newly-issued MBS: Still the best bonds on the planet My newly-issued MBS strategy is crushing all reasonable alternatives by over 100bps YTD. And such MBS are still near a "crisis spread" of +140bp to

SO Brian Moynihan, $BAC tell us again why we cannot buy $MTBA ?? This is an ETF that buys new issue agency MBS. So we can trade options on BAC Edge, but not this ETF?? Simplify Really?? BTW, how's your MBS position doing??

New Commentary... Today I consider why newly-issued MBS continue to trade nearly 145bp over USTs, a distress level only exceeded in the past 20 years during the 2008/09 GFC and 2020 Covid panic; a spread nearly double the historical average near 75bp. convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl… I

The gas tank is empty on long maturity bonds.... A UChicago geek might consider GDP to be the "income" of the US while the T10yr is the "cost of capital". As such, a business will borrow when the cost of capital is less than the income it can produce. This implies a

Don’t miss @convexitymaven on Bloomberg ETF IQ today at 10:00 AM EST. Eric Balchunas, Katie Greifeld, Scarlet Fu. bloom.bg/3XywoOs