Cut probabilities for ECB October down from 32% to 25% (1 in 4).

So this Is the case 50bp but economy Is strong version, to avoid panic

Interest rate payments absorb a great part of Federal budget

Yield curve steep in the USA, but bear steep.. don't exactly the reaction you expect after a monster cut..

Gold and treasury bond: both assets should have benefited from a Fed cut, both assets are long crowded.. Both assets price action diverged from newflow.. Draw your own conclusions

1 I learned to use Beverdige curve practically in this cycle, tks to Dario Perkins (One of the first to talk about it) 2 agree on curve indicating easying cycle and not recession

The Fed dual mandate in one chart

Silver is not only a precious metal, but a great macro indicator for growth being used in a lot of industrial processes.

US JOBLESS CLAIMS 219,000 IN SEPT. 14 WEEK; EST. 230K -> following the usual seasonality

Liquidity remains wide, due to money growth (with various central banks cutting rates) and the declining dollar. Below some Simon White bbg charts..