As #Ernesto pulls northwest of Puerto Rico, it's trying to form a core. However it is still dealing with some NW shear that has made it somewhat lopsided. This shear should still be weak enough to allow Ernesto to continue strengthening

Shear near the trough picking up #Ernesto is giving it some notable tilt, with low level cloud motions implying the center is actually SW of the eye on satellite

Very dry post-frontal air has wrapped around #Ernesto giving it a comma shape akin to extratropical systems. Going to take quite a while to mix something like this out if ever. Probably going to have an unusual looking TC while it remains over warm water

That dry air intrusion yesterday sent #Ernesto back to square one. It's managed to shrink down to a reasonable size and restrengthen back to hurricane intensity. Will have a little bit longer of favorable conditions before hitting cooler water north of the Gulf Stream

#Ernesto looks as good as it's ever been this morning with deeper convection wrapping around the eye. This is its final peak as it is over the last of the warm water. Ernesto's convection will degrade today as the water will no longer support it and it will become a remnant low

Here's something you don't see too often - the center of a hurricane on radar from eastern Newfoundland! #Ernesto is certainly in an unusual spot to still be a TC. Lack of nearby trough to blame. Can see from the radar how its southwest side is mostly eroded too, cooler water

#Hone's convection is sputtering tonight after its development. Lots of stratocumulus nearby so stable air may be putting a lid on it for now. Still, Hone looks to enhance trade winds for Hawaii and present a flooding risk to the Big Island in a few days as it passes to the south

#Shanshan is trying to get going but there's noticeable tilt thanks to some westerly shear near an upper trough. This trough will cut off and retrograde, and as Shanshan moves north, watch for more serious intensification with a more favorable shear setup and a source of upper

Although it has no convection, #Hone has a solid structure. Nice low level eye on satellite. This is probably the reason for relatively strong flight level winds on recon

While the Atlantic struggles, the northerly shifted ITCZ is doing some interesting things. Precipitable water looks to be far above average in the Saharan desert, with some particularly impressive surges of moisture bringing deep tropical values into a normally arid environment

#Hone is faring rather well this morning, with a recent double VHT showing off its healthy inner core structure. It has a well defined eye on radar with a strengthening eyewall. Luckily the inner core is passing just south of the Big Island. However banding to the north is

#Shanshan is meandering near Amami, where a radar station is located. May get to see the beginning of upwelling causing core degradation on both satellite and radar

Looks like some undercutting SW shear from the nearby trough is weakening #Shanshan, with a more disorganized satellite presentation and "halficane" look on radar with only the NE half of the eyewall remaining. Good thing that the favorable trough interaction did not come to pass

A moist tropical airmass is beginning to take hold over parts of the Saharan desert. Fairly widespread (for the area) afternoon convection can be seen now. Not something we're used to seeing! This moist airmass should continue, causing record breaking rainfall deep in the desert

#Shanshan is still drifting over southern Japan. An incoming upper trough is giving it a boost, causing it to drop more rain and become extratropical. Some heavy rain in scattered convection to the east of its center

🚨 🍤 Shrimp alert 🚨 🍤 for #Yagi in the West Pacific 🍤 👀

#Yagi is intensifying quickly, now with an eye showing up on satellite imagery. An example of how La Niña favors activity in this part of the West Pacific. Worth keeping a wary eye on in Hainan as it moves towards the island

A remarkable satellite image - the eye of #typhoon #yagi almost directly over the city of Haikou, with a population of over 3m people, the textbook tropical cyclone symbol, the curved banding almost looks like it's been painted by a brush - just, wow!

In classic 2024 fashion Africa is more interesting than the Atlantic. Nice wave at 20N dropping rain over the desert. This wave looks to recurve before hitting water because the Atlantic apparently has lost its TC privileges. Really neat to see unstable cumulus push into Algeria