Brrrrrrr…

Periodic reminder. Hodling is not easy. If you already worry about -20% dips, then bitcoin is not for you.

As most of you know, my bitcoin strategy is: ride it to zero or a million. I make models & charts because they give me some situational awareness where we are on those scenarios (zero and a million). My view: high volatility, but higher trend, odds: 20% zero, 80% a million.

It's all about asymmetric bets

Bitcoin is still in a bull market! My market analysis 👉 m.youtube.com/watch?v=WWCtT2…

The issue with current bitcoin market IMO: it went into bull market too early. Normally, halvings (every 210,000 blocks) are in accumulation phase, but 2024 halving (block 840,000) is in bull market phase. So we have been front-running, but the market was not ready to go up yet.

Average bitcoin price 2020-2024 halving cycle was 34k. A bit below 2019 S2F prediction of 55k, but still in normal range and not bad given BTC<4k when prediction was made. S2F refit with new data since 2019 shows similar parameters & results: ave 0.5m 2024-2028 and 4m 2028-2032:

ICYMI: my latest market analysis on YouTube: m.youtube.com/watch?v=WWCtT2…

🚨 ALERT: Elizabeth Warren just sent out a text message saying the following: “It's Elizabeth Warren. We recently found out that a Super PAC supporting my Republican opponent (a crypto lawyer from Rhode Island recruited to run against me) raked in $2 million from three massive

This March 2019 tweet aged well! The same can be said today: btc market cap not approaching $10trn after 2024 halving is unlikely IMO.

Bitcoin $60k .. up ~4x from the bottom. Just like before the pump in 2017 and 2020/2021🚀

Periodic reminder. You can't keep the ball underwater forever. MtGox returning 140k BTC, German govt selling 50k BTC, US govt selling 10k BTC, miners forced to sell BTC after the halving ... that's all done now.

Bitcoin increased 4x from the bottom in 2022 to now. Historically 7-10x follows from here. What do you think bitcoin will do next 12 months?

Stock-to-Flow trading rule 10 months in: +76% 14 months to go🔥 June 2012 ($5) -> May 2014 ($628): 121x Feb 2016 ($366) -> Jan 2018 ($10,050): 27x Dec 2019 ($7,550) -> Nov 2021 ($56,974): 7x Nov 2023 ($34,661) -> Aug 2024 ($61,000): 1.76x

I was a traditional institutional investor before I became a bitcoiner. I noticed most traditional institutional investors (including myself) go through 3 bitoin stages: Stage 1) You are in awe about the almost exponential growth from below $1 to $60,000 in 13 years. You can

Dangerous times

Bitcoin is a stablecoin now /s

Like clockwork

Boring sideways market, so I am sailing until the end of September. September YouTube video will be merged with October. See you all at the other side!