China's (customs) goods surplus disappears in its balance of payments data. So does the interest income of SAFE and the policy banks. A new blog cfr.org/blog/chinese-s… 1/

Trump pledged a 100% tariff on countries that shift away from using the US dollar at a rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin — a penalty that his aides have discussed, as Saleha Mohsin, Nancy Cook & Jennifer Jacobs scooped earlier. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇨🇳 - Western de-risking plans and trade tariffs are prompting Chinese FDI surge in connector countries • Chinese firms are setting up shop in non-aligned countries to circumvent Western trade measures • Trend suggests assessing reality of de-risking will get increasingly harder

Draghi’s speech provided specific data and examples to illustrate the challenges for Europe. Here are some of the key takeaways: 1⃣Economic and Innovation Gap: Europe spends €270 billion less on research and innovation compared to the US. Only four of the world’s top 50 tech

The Draghi report is barely out but Berlin already says "Nein" "Joint EU borrowing will not solve the structural problems", says Finance Minister Christian Lindner POLITICOEurope. Pooling of risks & liability "creates democratic and fiscal problems. Germany won't agree to this"

🇨🇳🌍 - Most data may be underestimating the scale of China’s lending in Africa • Datasets focusing on Exim Bank of China and China Development Bank do not tell the full story • Adding other creditors, loans in renminbi, SPVs and currency swaps paints vastly different picture

Data from the US commerce department indicates that 57% of #industries in America would require 6-months to return to normal capacity if there was even a single week of #transport disruption, chart Rana Foroohar Financial Times ft.com/content/e8a94c…

📆🇨🇳 🇪🇺 What are Europe’s sanctions options and leverage against China in the event of a Taiwan conflict? How would China try to evade them, and how can the bloc curb evasion? Join the discussion in Berlin👇 buff.ly/3z9MiVT

🇪🇺🇹🇼 - What would Europe's sanctions options and leverage against China be in a Taiwan conflict scenario? • Join us in Berlin on October 1st to discuss these issues (and many others) • Registration and details are here 👇 ECFR ECFR Geoeconomics ECFR Berlin ecfr.eu/event/lessons-…

Nicolás Maduro has a new post-election problem in Venezuela: The bolivar is tumbling, threatening to revive a cycle of rapid inflation that sent the country into a tailspin bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇨🇳🔋 - China is the centre of global battery production • Just six Chinese firms control 70-80% of global battery market, with CATL uncontested leader • Drop in battery prices could lead to consolidation wave, making Chinese giants even larger than they are

As China grapples with deflation, nominal GDP can provide a clearer read on conditions — just as was the case during Japan’s so-called lost decades. bloomberg.com/news/newslette… via Bloomberg Economics Chris Anstey

Basically, Xi Jinping bet that macro.isnt a thing, and micro is all that matters. But macro will not be mocked... bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇬🇧 - Britain's energy transition is going fast as renewables have become largest source of energy • Coal supplied 80% of UK’s electricity in 1990 — but only 1% last year • Pledges to get to net zero by 2030 will require huge shift away from gas towards (even) more renewables

🇨🇳 - Chinese consumers and businesses remain (very) gloomy • Consumer-confidence index dropped during 2022 covid-19 lockdowns, and it has yet to recover • Purchasing managers data show firm expectations stand at their lowest ever levels (outside of pandemic)

🇪🇺🇹🇼 ¿Qué influencia y qué opciones tendría la UE para sancionar a China en caso de conflicto con Taiwán? Si estás por Berlín el 1 de octubre, no te pierdas este evento en el que participa Agathe Demarais. Más detalles aquí ECFR Berlin ECFR Geoeconomics 👇 ecfr.eu/event/lessons-…

“I think the new norm is significantly more dependency on LNG coming from Qatar and from the U.S.,” said Helen Thompson POLIS. That means exposure to Middle East conflagrations as well as yo-yoing U.S. politics. “It’s pick your poison,” she said. w/Victor Jack politico.eu/article/europe…

🏦💵 - Fed rate cuts could help to revive debt issuance in emerging markets • Eurobond net issuance dropped to US$40bn/year in 2022-23, down by 70% relative to the prior two years • Many emerging economies recorded net Eurobond outflows as reimbursments exceeded new issuance

🪙 - Gold prices are reaching record-high levels • This is due to global tensions, high retail demand and central-bank appetite for (sanctions-proof) bullion • MUFG predicts gold will reach US$3,000/ounce by 2025, up from US$2,500 today (already a record)

La pression chinoise fait effet : En visite en Chine, Pedro Sanchez se prononce contre les droits de douane supplémentaires sur les véhicules électriques chinoise l'Espagne est le premier exportateur européen de viande de porc bloomberg.com/news/articles/…