The fundamental challenge to evidence based policy is that senior bureaucrats, judges and politicians find it hard to believe that good intentions can sometimes have bad outcomes.

When you watch Marjorie Taylor Greene on YouTube, you realise what a fragile hold some people have on the truth.

What’s going on with the Greens and the CFMEU? Strange bedfellows!?@&&$

Great article on Elle Macpherson and breast cancer by Julia Baird last Saturday. The all-too-human desire to want control can take you into some dangerous places

A govt asks you to evaluate their treatment program. An RCT is out of the question as is DiD, RD, IV and any form of time series analysis. Matching of treatment and control groups is an option. Do you match or decline the request to evaluate.

North Bondi this morning.

Curry tonight. Weird cooking for one (my wife is off walking Hadrian’s Wall with her best friend). Hope my cooking has improved since I was 30.

So often I hear people say ‘amount’ when they mean number (e.g., large amount of police instead of large number of police). I know I’m a pedant but an amount is something you measure, a number is something you count. Apologies.

John Dory is selling for over $80/kg in Maroubra. Pity I sold my boat (not that I caught many fish). Been watching Iranian nomads on youtube hauling in the fish with nets. Must have been like that in Aus before Europeans arrived. Sigh.

When the Reserve Bank considers an interest rate cut, do they focus solely on the most likely effect or weigh up the cost of failing to cut against the cost of cutting too soon?

Frustration is entering a car wash queue when you could have washed the car yourself in half the time. I like magpies so why do they shit all over my car?

Federico Zandomeneghi, born June 2, 1841 in Venice and died December 31, 1917 in Paris, is an Italian painter.

My son is coming home from London to take up a job in the Reserve Bank. Hope it isn’t too stuffy for him. At his age I had no idea what to do with my life.

I think Trump is receiving the boiling frog strategy.

I once complimented an academic on her conference presentation but raised a question about her methods. Later in the foyer I caught up with her and said I hoped she didn’t mind my question. ‘Oh no’, she said. At your age you can say anything you like.’

I’m so sick of seeing/hearing/reading about Trump’s latest lies, racism, bigotry, sexism, and general inhumanity. May the Gods of fate take him far away from us after the election.

I know economists are sceptical about matching methods but sometimes the criteria for treatment selection are so explicit, matching methods do not seem like a bad choice. Especially when you’re not looking for small effects.

Pumpkin risotto tonight. Yum. Haven’t made it since the three capes walk in Tassie.

Trump blames Biden and Harris for another attempt on his life. Weird. Just plain weird.

I read where Russia is selling oil and gas to China at a heavily discounted price. What’s to stop the Chinese from forcing the price down to just above the cost of production and distribution? Who else would buy Russian gas and oil?