US Election Countdown: 10 weeks to go. My weekly piece on navigating the election, this week including thoughts on the race, #NVDA earnings and more. social.saxo/s2qlnur?uuid=s…

China is considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as $5.4 trillion in mortgages to lower borrowing costs for millions of families and boost consumption bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Markets

This week's Countdown to the US Election for investors: 9 weeks to go. social.saxo/mlefurb?uuid=l… Focusing on US yield curve close to "dis-inverting" as did Althea Spinozzi in a more lengthy piece last month: home.saxo/content/articl…

Fed is far behind the curve -> Heard on the Street: Low-income consumers are cutting back on necessities, while better-off households are looking for bargains wsj.com/business/retai… via The Wall Street Journal

The US Senate elections will prove decisive for presidential power post-election: home.saxo/learn/guides/u…

US July JOLTS survey of job openings fell to 7.673M, far worse than the 8.1M expected and 7.910M (revised from 8.184M) in June. This data tilts the odds further in favor of a large 50-bp point rate cut at the September 18 FOMC meeting. US 10yr and 2yr challenging 3.75% level.

Two important Fed speakers later today - Williams 15 minutes after US jobs report and then bigger one: Waller with speech on econ outlook at 1500 GMT

US Aug. Jobs report: something for everyone! Useless NFPs slightly lower with -86k revision to prior to months. Unemployment rate ticks down to 4.2% despite participation rate +0.1% - hooray! Underemployment rate new cycle high 7.9% - Boooh!

These JPY crosses are h e a v y

This week's US Election Countdown: talking pre-debate anticipation and Nasdaq 100 divergence relative to broader S&P 500 social.saxo/3gg00bf?uuid=S…

Democrats could cry foul on these lines if Trump wins electoral college but loses popular vote again: The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion abcnews.go.com/538/2024-votin…

My good buddy Ole S Hansen penned a piece on why gold might continue to thrive on any US election outcome. social.saxo/y0qayfa?uuid=-… #Gold

Harris wins debate, but #FOMC trumps Election impacts for now: saxostrats.podbean.com/e/as-harris-be… with Søren Otto Simonsen

China's private sector withering...private company formation virtually dead. on.ft.com/4d0gDEd

The US is going through a crisis of trust — and not just with government. But how did we get here? And how can we recover? Bloomberg Opinion looked at nine American institutions to try to get to the heart of the problem. bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-… via @bbgvisualdata

JPY is the only game in town at the moment in FX and for good reason. Still, implied vol is darn cheap for major non-USDJPY pairs over next week's #FOMC.

About as bad as it gets - German ZEW current situation at rock bottom zone, new low since pandemic breakout - expectations cratered again as well. #EURGBP

#FOMC cuts 50 as most were leaning for, but only sees rates at median of 4.4% by end of this year (less dovish than market)

In the SEP, the #FOMC 's excuse for easing is quite visible - somewhat more concerned about rising unemployment this year and next relative to June (reacting to reality of the data...), while inflation seen as cooling comfortably toward target more quickly than in June.

and #EURNOK looking pretty heavy, with last important local support zone coming up here....