New national Civiqs poll released today: - Biden/Trump tied at 45% - More voters predict Trump is going to win - Dems believe if Trump wins, he'll try for a 3rd term - 1 in 4 Rs think a 3rd Trump term would be "good" for the US Report and crosstabs: civiqs.com/reports/2024/6…

Democrats are taking Trump's anti-democratic talk very seriously

Biden's favorable rating fell 3 points after the presidential debate. He immediately gained that back after dropping out of the race. Civiqs poll: civiqs.com/results/favora…

Donald Trump has a 42% favorable rating in tracking from Civiqs. The last time his favs were this high was right after the 2020 election and before the Jan 6, 2021 Capitol attack. He's completely rebounded among Republicans and conservative Independents. civiqs.com/results/favora…

Some polling on JD Vance from this week: - National favorable rating: 34% - Favorable rating among women: 28% - Percent of Republicans who think Vance was a good VP choice: 67% - Percent of Rs who think Trump should have picked someone else: 16% Source: civiqs.com/reports/2024/7…

In a 2015 article, Benjamin Lauderdale and I estimated that presidential candidates receive an extra 1.8% of the vote in the home state of their vice presidential candidate, with a 95% posterior credible interval of (0.6%, 3.1%). votamatic.org/wp-content/upl…

Our opinion tracker at Civiqs will be continually updating the presidential candidates' favorable ratings in all 50 states from now through the election --> Kamala Harris: civiqs.com/results/favora… Donald Trump: civiqs.com/results/favora…

Harris' favorable rating is WAY UP since becoming the Democratic nominee. From mid-July to now, she's improved 10% nationally and in states including PA, AZ NV, MI, GA & WI. civiqs.com/results/favora…

JD Vance's favorable rating in the Civiqs tracking poll (now released publicly) is 34% nationwide (net -19) and 28% among women (net -31). Source: civiqs.com/results/favora…

Slightly different question, similar finding: Democrats overwhelmingly say that "the Supreme Court is too conservative" whereas most Republicans think "the Supreme Court has a good ideological balance" (Civiqs subscriber-only tracking)

A little bit of bragging for the team at Civiqs. Our economic direction tracking survey, running every day since Jan 15, 2015 -- nearly 10 years ago! -- just passed 1 MILLION responses. Thank you to everyone who helped to produce this incredible resource. civiqs.com/results/econom…

This is a Democratic vibes shift (Civiqs poll)

We're *elated* to announce our biggest news in the 21 years we've been covering elections: Daily Kos Elections is striking out on its own as an independent site called The Downballot! 🧵dailykos.com/stories/2024/8…