Orange County, CA is one of the rare housing markets nationwide where investor home purchases have accelerated sharply since the end of 2022. As of Q2-2024 we’re almost back to 2021 peak investor volumes. This upward trend has helped fuel rising home prices in OC, now +10% YOY.

Good housing read from ⁦Conor Sen⁩. In July, homebuilders we survey dialed back the pace of single-family starts well beyond the usual June to July dip. Rates only really started dropping in August, so we’ll see if things shift as month plays out. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

The entire housing industry is waiting for the Fed to get on with it already - $HD

Here’s our national single-family rent index, which helps when thinking about shifts in CPI and shelter. New lease growth bottomed at +3.8% a year ago and has been bouncing around +4% ever since. The story is very different across the country.

Good summary from ⁦⁦Aarthi Swaminathan⁩ on today’s soft NAHB housing print and the mortgage rate buydown incentive programs homebuilders continue to lean on. marketwatch.com/story/one-thir…

The chart below is an early read for tomorrow’s July housing starts release. Based on our homebuilder survey, the June to July drop in single-family starts looks worse than the normal seasonal dip.

Pretty soft single-family starts print this morning. While weather could be part of the story, it’s more likely homebuilders (even the big ones) aren’t as thrilled about loading up on spec inventory today vs. when resale competition was nonexistent and home prices were ripping.

Resale home prices across Texas are now falling year over year. We have #Austin -3%, #Dallas -1%, #Houston -1%, and #SanAntonio -2%. Seeing more markets flip negative on price as of July, which is part of why homebuilders are dialing back starts.

Homebuilders seeing new home prices flat to slightly down YOY in July across Texas and Florida also supports the recent downshift in single-family housing starts. Chart below shows pricing net of incentives, so in theory, factors in stuff like cost of mortgage rate buydowns.

One of the best pieces to date on new commission rules. It’ll be interesting to watch mortgage purchase applications over the coming weeks as consumers navigate these changes (could see some choppy prints). ⁦Nicole Friedman⁩ ⁦⁦Laura Kusisto⁩ wsj.com/real-estate/ne…

Our land banking clients love this chart. Public homebuilders now option 67% of their lots, a significant land strategy shift for the industry.

The big public homebuilders (especially $DHI and $LEN) have all gained market share in recent years. Others, like third-ranked $PHM, are now back to 2013 market share levels.

Two highlights from this morning’s $TOL call, at least in my opinion: 1) They’ve bought back ~50% of the company since 2016. 2) Operating margins at 17.5% look like gross margins used to roughly, which is pretty wild.