When positive 12-mnth % changes in forward EPS turns 🆙 it usually trends significantly higher, for longer (notice trend)

Currently at post-bear mkt high. NOT going to ease lower just for easing sake; will take force factor of consequence‼️

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $NDX

Failed #recession signals to-date

⚠️Yield-curve Inversion
⚠️Leading Economic Index
⚠️Confidence Spread
⚠️M2 Supply
⚠️Budget Deficit % Nominal GDP
⚠️Annual CPI spike
⚠️Crude Oil % gain Y/Y
⚠️GDP consecutive Qs negative
⚠️Mom's meatloaf tastes like filet mignon

#economy #Macro

If the economy is slowing then I'm the 2nd cousin to the monkey's 🐒 uncle.

#consumer #GDP #Macro

Sahm rule has been above 0 for last 12 months.  Historically this would indicate #economy was already in a #recession which currently is supported by very little if any economic data. Consequently, Sahm rule, while not yet officially “wrong”, appear on verge of being incorrect.

J.P. M. Marko Kolanovic:

'..we look for more of a consolidation in equity markets over the next couple of months...'

(*former call April 22nd: 'we think deeper decline through May.')

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $NYA $DIA

Let’s do this!

Does it make sense to suggest the Fed is jawboning equity markets when the market with the most volatility is the Treasury market? 😉

$SPX $MOVE $VIX $QQQ

Want to outperform, be in stocks/ETFs/Indices that outperform. Even the best of em' make this mistake in stock picking analysis.

By the way, the whole of energy looks this way when compared.

$SPX $SPY $XLE $OXY $QQQ $COMPQ

Rail Traffic continues its winning streak from late Q4 2023 into Q2 2024.

Getting further and further away from #recession signals it seems? #GDP $Macro

And another 💰💰💥

Another long winner $SHOP from $57.31 sold at $57.91.

You can trade with us at finomgroup.com

$AMZN $QQQ $SPY $SPX $NDX $AAPL

Equal-weight vs. Cap-weight:

You've cried about leadership and concentration many a time since 1920s. Current EW:CW underperformance since 2015 is roughly 20%. Was 25% from '94 - '00. Leadership and concentration are not bugs, but features.

$SPX $SPY $RSP $QQQ h/t Jim Paulsen

When positive 12-mnth % changes in forward EPS turns 🆙 it usually trends significantly higher, for longer (notice trend)

Currently at post-bear mkt high. NOT going to ease lower just for easing sake; will take force factor of consequence‼️

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $DIA $NDX

Failed #recession signals to-date

⚠️Yield-curve Inversion
⚠️Leading Economic Index
⚠️Confidence Spread
⚠️M2 Supply
⚠️Budget Deficit % Nominal GDP
⚠️Annual CPI spike
⚠️Crude Oil % gain Y/Y
⚠️GDP consecutive Qs negative
⚠️Mom's meatloaf tastes like filet mignon

#economy #Macro

Third Point Dan Loeb

...adds more Amazon $AMZN with new position in Alphabet $GOOGL...

$QQQ $NDX $SPY

Sahm rule has been above 0 for last 12 months.  Historically this would indicate #economy was already in a #recession which currently is supported by very little if any economic data. Consequently, Sahm rule, while not yet officially “wrong”, appear on verge of being incorrect.

J.P. M. Marko Kolanovic:

'..we look for more of a consolidation in equity markets over the next couple of months...'

(*former call April 22nd: 'we think deeper decline through May.')

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $NYA $DIA

If the economy is slowing then I'm the 2nd cousin to the monkey's 🐒 uncle.

#consumer #GDP #Macro

Stop Saying Stupid sh _ _ 💩Part 25

'Markets are random'

History repeating, fund flows/seasonality:

Semiconductors since start of May, up-up and away.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ $SMH $SOXX $SOXL $NVDA

BofA: Nope, lower-end consumer not stressed!

No signs of #consumer cracks. Lower-income spending has outpaced higher-income spending on Y/Y basis since 2023, even excluding necessities. This is consistent w/strength in blue-collar wage growth since start of pandemic.” #economy