To follow up on this post, several seasonal forecast models forecast a weak La Niña to settle in by early winter. Focusing on Argentina, the map shows the composite precipitation response to a weak La Niña in Oct, Nov, Dec.

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Over the last 30 days, AU has experienced extreme dryness, with AU #wheat prod wghtd precip at 30% of nrml. However, the 15-day EC and GEFS fcsts show a turnaround over the next 2 weeks, with the EC and GEFS wheat prod wghtd fcsts to be 107% and 102% of nrml, respectively. #oatt

Brazil and Argentina have been incredibly dry over the prior 60 days. Why? It may be b/c of the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, as revealed by an analog analysis. Read about it here: bit.ly/TNA_Index

Hoping Francine will raise the MS River for barge shipping? It's will effects will remain largely south of St. Louis. However, the 7-14 day forecast includes rain in states W of the N MS River and it's reaches that will be beneficial.

While drought was close to existent during the core of the #corn and #soybean growing season, the crop production weighted #drought indices are starting to creep back up.

Here is a way to visualize the time evolution of #drought areas in the US #corn and #soybean crops. Create a US county crop production weighted drought index from the US Drought Monitor data.