THE M FLARE THAT RESULTED FROM THE CME (see earlier tweets) HAS ONLY JUS DROPPED BELOW THE M FLARE LEVEL AFTER 8 HOURS: This Long-Duration Event (LDE) is typical after a big solar eruption some have gone on for over a day.

LARGE SUNSPOT COMPLEX COMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. These may be the return of regions AR3785 and AR3788

CME WATCH - 2024.09.03: 10 CMEs detected today - one was a halo event which followed an M flare - possibly related. We had 8 C flares and 2 M flares. We had no significant geomagnetic activity (Kp<4).

CME WATCH - 2024.09.05: Only 4 CMEs detected today. There was a halo event seen towards the end of the video. However, we did see 16 C flares and 6 M flares.

CME WATCH - 2024.09.06: You can see the halo CME near the beginning of the clip despite a lot of missing data. Otherwise, we have a bunch of small CMSs that I like to call puffs! Only 5 CMEs detected today. There were no M flares but 13 C flares.

AN UNUSUAL FLARE: This M flare was very slow both in its rise and decay times. Initially some of the high faint magnetic loops erupt, then and arcade of high loops brighten. This means there was a CME launched but the region is in the southeast so is unlikely to affect the Earth.

And there is the CME associated with the flare (see previous tweet) moving almost directly south so will most likely pass beneath the Earth is a day or two.

CME WATCH - 2024.09.07: Only 5 CMEs detected today. But the biggest was off the southern polar area in response to the unusually slow M flare earlier.

A PLOT THAT NOBODY ELSE CAN SHOW YOU! This is my own analysis comparing the average sunspot areas (in millionths of the area of the Sun) for Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25. Note SC25 is consistently outpacing SC24 by about 45% which implies sunspot maximum will be about 165.

La Nina not arrived yet. We are in an ENSO neutral pattern which is probably why the hurricane season (so far) is mild, contrary to predictions. Below is the NOAA outlook for the beginning of Autumn for precipitation and temperature. SW continues dry and hot. NE wetter but hotter

CME WATCH - 2024.09.08: 6 CMEs detected today, with just two C flares and one M flare. In other words, the Sun was quieter today than it has been for some time. The looked as though there was a partial halo CME off the NW limb towards the end of the video.

PROTON FLARE(S): We have had 6 M flares today (no C flares!) and that seems to have triggered the 10 MeV threshold alert on proton flux hitting the Earth. The harder (higher energy) proton levels seem unaffected. Not sure I would want to be on the space station right now.

CME WATCH - 2024.09.09: Note sone broken images early in the video (result of the proton flare?). Then there is a spectacular eruption off the west limb, followed by another eruption - a partial halo and a very fast one - off the NE limb.

COMET'S Fiery Death: Coming in from about 4 o'clock, we see a small object plunging towards the Sun, as it gets closer it brightens (especially when you allow the radial density filter the LASCO C3 coronagraph uses). This is a moderate sized comet judging by its brightness.

CORONAL HOLE ALERT: There are 2 high-latitude coronal holes just about to cross the central meridian of the Sun. The northerly one has been around for 5 months whereas the southerly one is new this rotation. Their latitude is high enough that they won't affect the Earth severely.

Flare of the Day - 2024.09.12: The Sun just produced an M5 flare right on the SW limb that peaked at 00:10 UT.

X FLARE! The Sun just produced a very impulsive X1 flares from a new region on or just behind the SE limb. It may be the return sunspot region A3799. No major spots visible as yet and not much data. I'll make a video when we have enough data. Stay tuned.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM! Unrelated to the X flare, the Earth is currently experiencing a weak geomagnetic storm (G1, Kp=5). Look out for some nice aurora at higher latitudes. There is always the possibility that the storm will intensify.

X FLARE VIDEO: This is taken with the SDO AIA 131A channel (characteristic temperature about 10 MK). The event starts with a small flare which seems to trigger a second much larger flare. There was probably a CME launched by this flare but is far too far east to affect the Earth

THE GEOMAGNETIC STORM (see earlier tweet) HAS INTENSIFIED: As I suspected, the storm is now a G3 (Kp =7) event with solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s at Earth as Bz (the interplanetary magnetic field) turns sharply south. Expect some strong aurora at high latitudes.