Harris' preference for higher taxes, price controls, and subsidizing demand amounts to boosting demand while also discouraging supply. This is a recipe for stagflation. A Harris victory in November would be a market negative event. fedguy.com/harrisomics/

The Harris campaign didn’t comment. But big pieces of what this would entail: - 25% “billionaire” tax - 28% corporate rate - Eliminating stepped-up basis - Closing carried interest loophole - Taxing capital gains as ordinary income semafor.com/article/08/19/…

Join me, Joseph Wang, and Phil Rosen on Friday. We’ll be talking about how much the Fed likely cuts and what that means for markets. Tap ‘Set Reminder’ and RETWEET to get first dibs at asking a question. x.com/i/spaces/1ynxa…

Many Fed officials had trouble believing the employment data.

Inflation came down without a recession or much slowing in rate sensitive sectors like housing. However, Powell takes credit for the move by claiming that he kept inflation expectations anchored. Note though that surveys suggest most Americans have no idea what the Fed does.

Great catching up with Charles V Payne today. IMO the outcome of the November election will have far more consequence on the economy than whatever the Fed does the coming months. foxbusiness.com/video/63609002…

There are a lot of foreign investors in dollar assets, and fx hedging has been expensive. They've been losing a lot on recent dollar weakness - maybe they will get out.

Markets Weekly August 24, 2024 Powell Officially Pivots Dollar Imploding 800k jobs revised away youtu.be/RpL3vl4X3ws

The market is in a bad news is bad news regime, and there is likely more bad news. Businesses may moderate activity ahead of potentially large policy changes, and half the public will be unhappy with the election results. Recession fears will surge. fedguy.com/slow-patch/

Trump was right (again).

I have first-hand experience with unrealized capital gains taxation in Denmark. From an entrepreneurial perspective, it was an absolute disaster, and Denmark ultimately had to abandon it.

Is the #Fed Falling Behind? Election Uncertainty Looms Over Policy Moves Watch the full interview with Jeremy Szafron and Joseph Wang, a former senior trader on the Federal Reserve's open market trading desk and the mind behind FedGuy.com (@fedguy12):

Blood in the water🩸

Fed's foreign RP pool reaches all time high of $413b. The facility is like a dollar checking account for foreign central banks. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WLRRAFO…

Markets Weekly August 31, 2024 Some Cracks In Economy Bad Seasonality Incoming Slow Internationalization of RMB youtu.be/XhHLvzjUs7g

Double top?

Donald Trump is set to propose 15% corporate tax rate for companies that make products in the USA, per WSJ

Overall commercial bank credit metrics still look good - non-current rates appear to have stabilized. Of course pockets of certain segments of commercial real estate are not doing well.

In the QA Waller notes that he still thinks the equilibrium monthly job growth is around 80 to100k a month, so he thinks jobs market is softening rather than deteriorating. IMO 25bps for September.