As someone privileged enough to be a regular on Ian King Sky News Business - & sees IKL as best-in-class this seems a short-sighted decision. Ian gets outstanding guests from across the UK business community to Fleet Place. This has just become much harder: cityam.com/madness-sky-ne…

Both Harris & Trump “are leaning towards increased deficit spending, with few specifics on how to balance these expenditures ... The anticipated .. fiscal stimulus and Fed easing could drive aggregate demand, potentially creating a favorable environment for risk assets in 2025."

NEW FACTORY: French-owned Schneider Electric has announced plans to build a new £42 million manufacturing plant in Scarborough, North Yorkshire. Expected to create more than 200 jobs, the new factory, which will be almost triple the size of Schneider Electric’s existing

Those calling for a 50 bps rate cut next week should take a look back at January 2001 & September 2007 when the Fed started cutting cycles w/ a 50 bps move. If the Fed feels the need to go big because of a weakening economy, that's not bullish. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=C0bNFh…

Two facts re winter fuel allowance: 1) At £200 it's same in cash terms as in 2000 - a real terms cut of 45%. Slow drift into irrelevance. 2) Pensioners much better off than they were then - poverty rate down from 26% to 16%, median income up 38% (only up 19% for non-pensioners)

Alex is right. You can see Budget speculation over AIM shares eligibility for BPR reflected in valuations - decoupling from the wider UK equity market in recent weeks. This triggers a higher UK cost of capital and an estimated £5bn of automatic outflows from a £48bn market.

Simon French Surely they are not seriously considering this bearing in mind what they’ve said about generating growth etc? The last thing that the UK capital markets need.

UK GDP flat in July, albeit monthly data is only marginally better than a random walk. Overall annual trend (+1.2% YoY) on a steady (if uneven) upward trend from its Q4 23 low point.

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Big US CPI report coming up at lunchtime with markets still looking at >110bp of interest rate cuts by year end: suggesting at least one -50bp move. The monthly CPI services, ex shelter data cratered over the summer - so key today will be whether that continued in August.

Fourth month of becalmed US CPI services, ex shelter data - coupled with a 43-month low in headline CPI - provides the basis for a sustained removal of policy restrictiveness. But the US interest rate cut curve still looks priced for too much easing given likely stance of US

Very sensible. Has a track record of reducing working age inactivity.

Despite very different policies during balance sheet expansion and contraction there is actually remarkable synchronicity to the shape of the ECB, Fed & BoE asset bases. ECB the marginally faster during the unwind - down 27% from its 2022 peak.

The structural challenge to fiscal sustainability is far more important than the near term adherence to (many vintages of) fiscal rules. How to have a sensible discussion around positioning for the impact of ageing, climate change, reduced carbon taxes should drown out

A pleasure to preview the ECB decision with the BSurveillance team. A 25bp cut this lunchtime given the GDP downgrades in the macro forecasts, and evidence of softer demand risks being seen as too slow a response to sub-trend growth. Whilst the GC will argue it is not their job

Three degrees. 🥶 Looks like a “bowl first” day….

Encouraging 12M-ahead UK inflation expectations - now seen at 3-year low of 2.7%, 5Y-ahead view marginally below its LT average at 3.2%. Supportive for a further cut in Bank Rate this year, although market still thinks MPC will dodge next week - seeing just a 25% chance of a