G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) 's Twitter Profile
G Elliott Morris

@gelliottmorris

editorial director of data analytics @abc news + 538. author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: how polls work and why we need them bit.ly/3OWqEqR.

ID: 57029492

linkhttp://gelliottmorris.com calendar_today15-07-2009 14:24:06

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Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Harris getting fairly close to even split on favorability, per 538 tracking. Trump's improved a little following assassination attempt/RNC, has settled at about -9 net. Trump won in 2016 despite having worse favorability than Clinton (both were poor & lower than what we see now)

Harris getting fairly close to even split on favorability, per 538 tracking. Trump's improved a little following assassination attempt/RNC, has settled at about -9 net.

Trump won in 2016 despite having worse favorability than Clinton (both were poor & lower than what we see now)
G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Another thing that bothers me: assuming non-college whites in Georgia and Wisconsin are the same. The cleavage people proxy for when dividing voters by race + education is largely about religion

G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) 's Twitter Profile Photo

high impact example of what can happen when someone conflates a probability statement reported as a percentage with an estimate of vote share. (this is why we use frequency statements, which do come with their own drawbacks but tend to produce this type of error less often)

high impact example of what can happen when someone conflates a probability statement reported as a percentage with an estimate of vote share. (this is why we use frequency statements, which do come with their own drawbacks but tend to produce this type of error less often)
G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Nate makes a crucial point: Just because you can go to a website and fill out a survey does not mean your submission is actually used when the company runs new numbers and publish a poll. Good firms verify respondents and have ways to check for BS. (Not saying they’re perfect.)

G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Imagine if we had election forecasts built using TikTok likes or X user bios… People don’t appreciate how good polls really are at what they do (ie compared to the alternatives)

Mark Rieke (@markjrieke) 's Twitter Profile Photo

a wonky contribution to forecast uncertainty is specification uncertainty. forecasters make independently reasonable modeling decisions that result in different outputs, so you can think of any individual forecast as a draw from a _distribution_ of possible forecast outcomes

G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) 's Twitter Profile Photo

If you’re on polling Twitter you’ve probably seen some criticism recently of a pollster called ActiVote, which has been releasing a lot of polls conducted on their own smartphone app. So Nathaniel Rakich actually called them up to ask about methods: abcnews.go.com/538/smartphone…