Amazing picture.

And interestingly, this has happened while unemployment rates are broadly stable in both economies.

Thrilled that Jeremy Weinstein will be the next Harvard Kennedy School Dean--he is a fantastic scholar & institution builder with a global outlook--not to mention a thoughtful and kind person. I'm optimistic he will be able to fill Doug Elmendorf's large shoes.
news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…

Boston: 124
Everyone else: 85

Data & perspective

Inflation peaked in June 2022

The deceleration we have seen since is the fastest in 50 years,
w/o brutal rise in unemployment.

The length of time that prices accelerated was short in historically but the first such acceleration in decades. Still painful.…

Ok nerds, let’s talk triangle weighting. A lot of people (well, two…) have asked my why March core PCE inflation came in as expected at 0.3%, when that was the expectation *before* the GDP report came out with the higher-than-expected core rate for Q1. After all…

Real disposable personal income per capita is roughly consistent with CBO's pre-pandemic forecast.

Real consumption per capita is well above that forecast.

Squaring the circle: the saving rate is low.

Core PCE inflation over the last 3 months was a 4.4% annual rate. That is higher than any time from Nov 1990 to Mar 2021.

Yes, there were special factors, seasonal issues, etc. But there were also special factors & seasonal issues at various times in those previous 30 years.