US CPI: I expect a 0.1% increase on the month & 2.5% from one year ago. Core inflation should increase 0.2% & 3.1%. A look at one year inflation swaps implies investors expect a notable slowing in inflation over the next year and sits at 1.73%. Look for falling gasoline prices to

US August CPI: Further moderation in pricing & more evidence that price stability has be established. 0.2% increases m/m & 2.5% y/y. Core up 0.3% & 3.2%. It's a 25bps Fed rate cut inflation report.

US Aug CPI: Service prices up 0.3% m/m and 4.8% y/y. Housing costs up 0.3%, shelter 0.5% and OER 0.5%. So, housing costs continue to prop up the topline. Energy costs declined -0.8%, gasoline -0.6%, fuel oil -1.9% while used cars and trucks -1%. New vehicles saw no change. Food

US Aug CPI: topline was up 0.187% and 0.281%. so rounded up to 0.2% and 0.3% increases. The sticky service sector inflation and persistent housing inflation in my estimation are consistent with a 25 basis point cut by the Fed. One would imagine that Powell would face a challenge

CPI & Fed Rate Decision: market now firmly pricing in a 25bps rate cut at the 9/18 policy meeting. Just can't see Powell sealing the deal on a 50bps cut given sticky service sector inflation & persistent housing costs to a skeptical committee.

My sense is that underlying inflation is moving along at a 2%+ pace. With breakevens at air near 2% and the one year swap below 2% firms can now begin making investment & expansion plans in way they have not been able over the past five years.

Growth, #inflation and hiring are cooling 📉, but the economy is not about to tip into a recession. Our Chief Economist @JoeBrusuelas explains why in the latest issue of The Real Economy ⟶ rsm.us/3AXsJRg

EU financial media asking Lagarde about r*. Next week it would be a good idea for the US financial media to press Powell on r* & u*. It’s time for the Federal Reserve to pivot away from an overly data dependent position and adopt a more forward look.

August PCE: we are forecasting a 0.15% on topline m/m & 2.3% y/y. Core is 0.15% & 2.7%. For those keeping score at home there was a notable decline in PPI airfares in contrast with the large increase inside CPI that was responsible-along with OER increase-for increase in core

My FOMC Preview: The Fed’s policy decision next week will put forward major changes to its outlook, including the dot plot, the Summary of Economic Projections and the language … Source: The Real Economy Blog search.app/KgBT18X4aKDC8Q…

BRUSUELAS: Next week’s Fed “policy pivot will create the conditions for greater fixed business investment, increased household spending, a bigger appetite for leverage and higher asset valuations over the next year.” 🇺🇸 “We expect .. 25 basis points ..” Joseph Brusuelas #FOMC

The Fed's Z-1 Flow of Funds or better known as the balance sheet of the United States was published today. Total wealth increased to $181.4 trillion up from $148.6 trillion in 2020. We are a wealthy nation-for a lot of reasons- and we can and should have nice things. If one

Remember that night a prizefighter quit in the middle of the fight with the memorable phrase “no mas.”

Good morning. My FOMC Preview. The Fed’s policy decision next week will put forward major changes to its outlook, including the dot plot, the Summary of Economic Projections and the language … Source: The Real Economy Blog search.app/LxKiTzceKez3bY…

US Dollar Dominance: Over @theterminal Saleha Mohsin has a terrific story on proposals to place "mega tariffs" on countries that do not use the dollar that trade outside the dollar system. The idea of placing mega tariffs on countries that do not use dollars to make

Pro Tip: the federal funds market is thin & illiquid. Large speculative bets can move that market creating the illusion of a shift in market sentiment. Perhaps a little too much is being made around the increased probability of a 50bps rate cut over the past 24 hours. Just a word