📢 'chart of the day' 🤓

UK #food prices are still rising at an annual rate of 4% in the latest CPI, but producer input price #inflation in this sector has now been negative for five successive months.

This should continue to feed through to the shops, with the usual lags 👇

Britain is not self-sufficient in food and has not been for several centuries.

Global supply chains increase food security and offer customers more options at lower prices.

My extended blog responds to the critics IEA:

iea.org.uk/free-trade-vs-…

This also contradicts the massive amount of academic research recently which has found that building housing of any kind tends to lower overall prices, because supply and demand.

We've been here before, of course.

The usual suspects warn of #Brexit chaos, food shortages etc, but companies find workarounds and these shortages never actually materialise.

But hey, they're always just around the corner... 😉

Striking how base effects from UK household energy are set to be a much greater disinflationary force in Q2 in than in comparable economies. Will drive a material undershoot in UK inflation dynamics mid-year compared to peers. This is a mirror of outsized 2023 UK inflation...

'Relying [...] on domestic production is an awful idea for food security. This amounts to putting all your eggs in one basket. It would mean a single bad harvest resulting in shortages'
-Matthew Lesh
iea.org.uk/free-trade-vs-…

📢 'chart of the day' 🤓

UK #food prices are still rising at an annual rate of 4% in the latest CPI, but producer input price #inflation in this sector has now been negative for five successive months.

This should continue to feed through to the shops, with the usual lags 👇

Understandable market reaction to the latest UK #inflation and wage data but, I think, wrong... 👇

There should still be enough new evidence for a first quarter point reduction in June, with the ground laid in the May Monetary Policy Report.

Remember also that only 4 MPC…

“I need the most British headline you’ve got… no, that’s too British”

Not much to say on UK #inflation ...

Headline rate fell from 3.4% to 3.2%, a rounding error above the consensus of 3.1%, keeping it on track for sub-2% in April (when the lower Ofgem cap on energy bills kicks in).

Sticky #services inflation still the main worry for the #BoE .

I am not a NatCon. I don't agree with a lot of what they say. But they should very obviously be allowed the right to free assembly, and indeed are very obviously not 'fascists'.

One less excuse for the Bank of England to delay cutting interest rates... 🤔

Official ONS data this morning back the evidence from the surveys: UK labour market cooled a lot further in February/March - employment, vacancies and (nominal) wage growth down, #unemployment up.

I was going to ignore this obviously misleading post, but it is now being widely retweeted by the the usual suspects.

It is also a super example of #FBPE #Brexit 'confirmation bias'... 🙄 🧵 (1/7)

#badbrexittakes #tourism

One more for #badbrexittakes ...

The 35% fall in Irish imports from (not 'to') Britain was due to swings in the value of trade in fuels and chemicals (volatile, and partly just reflecting price changes).

Imports of 'food and live animals' actually rose.

cso.ie/en/releasesand…