👀new book from Mick Ryan, AM is available. I’ll be reading this one. I have always appreciated Mick’s grounded viewpoints and well-considered work on strategy and adaptation.

Interesting 🧵about Russian conscripts from Leningrad and Moscow MD being sent in for support. They can use them for logistical support or digging trenches with little risk. If they force them to sign contracts and fight, they won’t be skilled and risk of blowback goes up

Ukraine has launched a large-scale drone attack on military airfields in Russia, hitting and damaging at least two as it wages a ground assault inside the country that has rattled the Kremlin and altered the narrative of the war. nyti.ms/4cndHRX

There’s a massive amount of war news about the Russian military. For a brief pause, join me for a look into the future. Russia has an emerging strategy to recruit personnel when the war ends, and they are laying the groundwork now. My latest, below 👇 warontherocks.com/2024/08/russia…

Ukraine’s extraordinary incursion into Kursk has changed the narrative of the war – but is a high-risk strategy - I write for The Observer theguardian.com/world/article/… RUSI

When AFU correlation of forces changed in Donetsk w/deployments to Kursk, Russian commanders are trained to push forward- that’s now happening in Donetsk/Pokrovsk. It’s a predictable 🇷🇺 response that could be exploited if 🇺🇦resources are available but seems stretched currently.

Conscripts can be used in combat with 4 months of basic training but the Kremlin for 20 years mostly avoided using them in combat. Treating families badly like this is once again instinctual, and rips up remaining social contracts with society. Fall 2024 draft is in a month.

Have heard from insiders that the sentence is completely untrue. I suspected as much. Nobody I speak to in the Administration is interested in a “reset” with Putin’s Russia.

A good assessment of Russian operations on the Pokrovsk axis of advance, and the importance of #Pokrovsk, from Tatarigami_UA

For War on the Rocks subscribers, a deeper dive on a deep dive of Russian wartime recruiting and post-war war recruiting strategy (described in this article warontherocks.com/2024/08/russia…)

I revisited this book on leadership, compiled by Admiral James Stavridis, USN, Ret. and R. Manning Ancell. It’s a great way to compare notes w/senior military leaders on the classic texts and the lessons they took away, and discover new favorites and perspectives too. Pairs well with a beach.🏖️

Sat down for Carnegie Politika YouTube channel with my incredible colleagues Michael Kofman & Alexandra Prokopenko to discuss Kursk incursion, the Kremlin's reaction, trendlines in the war and 🇷🇺 economy over the next 12-18 months. I've learned a lot. (in Russian) youtube.com/watch?v=vIQCYy…