Michael Liu (@michael2017l) 's Twitter Profile
Michael Liu

@michael2017l

Microcap investor. Analyst at if.capital @IntelligentCM. Member of @MicroCapClub.

ID: 754368874812993536

linkhttps://michaelliumicrocaps.substack.com/ calendar_today16-07-2016 17:35:30

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Had a great time putting this together – if anyone is looking for resources/strategies to get started researching microcap stocks this might be a helpful presentation!

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Thanks Bobby Kraft and Andrew Walker for arranging this chat in Vegas last month! We talked about many different topics like investing philosophy, research process, interacting with management, etc. Was a lot of fun! youtu.be/cdL4MwMfq2I

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Quarterly reminder to pay close attention to insider buying next few days. R2K is down 10% since last earnings season and most insiders have been in blackout from trading until reporting earnings earlier this week.

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Some recent failures in special situation trades could make the rest of the space more attractive. $TMBR was an "easy" merger arb play down 70% today because they couldn't get the vote. $FIXX (biotech shell) botched an RTO and was down 45% last week. Worth watching for contagion.

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Real companies are willing to get close to you. Those hiding something aren't. In 5 years we've only had 2 CEOs unwilling/"unable" to meet with us in person, and both turned out to be zeros or outright fraud.

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Pure info edge still exists today. Last Thurs AM $SASK.CN PRed they're acquiring $92E.AX for ~42c USD in stock. $92E's US OTC symbol $NTELF was unhalted and traded several 100k shares at low 20c before rising to 35c much later in the day. A cool 50%+ gain from just reading PRs.

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Long-termism doesn't mean holding forever. It means thinking out when the market is too short-term. This can mean buying/holding during temporary weakness but also means SELLING when things are over-hyped. There's no one way to be long-term. It's just a way of thinking.

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Everyone likes to hate on day traders, but day trading stocks does benefit companies by giving their shares liquidity. Higher liquidity = higher valuation to raise money, pay employees, support morale, etc. Not everything has to be long-term buy and hold forever.

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It's worth following biotech just to see how often stocks can trade out of sync with news. Positive trial result? Down 20%. Piper (who ran the deal) initiates coverage? +20%. "DCF value" doesn't matter. It's entirely about fund positioning/marginal trader going into a catalyst.

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Interesting PR today from $KA (I don't own). $8m market cap busted biotech that just got $5m upfront for the right to *negotiate* to buy their lead drug by October. Curious if anyone has seen a structure like this before/has a sense of base rate outcome?

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$TLIS is a strange situation. Down 50% today from talking about bankruptcy potential despite being a shell with $45m cash and zero debt. Just shows you never know what's going on behind the scenes.

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Something a little sketchy is going on at $EZEN right now. Management appears to have forced bought back all minority holders at a 40% discount to cash, and is now dividending all the excess cash to themselves. EZEN has always been a dark stock with a bit of cash. This January

Something a little sketchy is going on at $EZEN right now. Management appears to have forced bought back all minority holders at a 40% discount to cash, and is now dividending all the excess cash to themselves.

EZEN has always been a dark stock with a bit of cash. This January
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$VOXX – announces strategic alternatives the same morning Gentex doubles their ownership in the company to 25%, buying stock at a $5 when it's trading $2.80... very curious what's going on behind the scenes

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$ALIM is interesting seemed like a set and done deal to be bought out for $5.50 + CVRs and is now suing the buyer (ANI Pharma) to follow through. ANI itself just raised $300m to fund this deal. $ALIM currently has 25% upside to the buyout price.

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Twice in the last 10 years I had a 75%+ position go down -70%. Hell just last month I had a 10% position drop -80%. Every time I spend weeks/months after wondering if I'm a sham, if I got what it takes... and then you start again. It's just another part of the game.