With LSq of 23.64, UK election 2024 is fourth most disproportional in European postwar history. Exceeded by Albania 2005 (manipulation of MMP), France 1993, Greece 1952 (the notorious ‘reinforced PR’). (Discounting Monaco’s elns when all seats filled through the block vote.) 1/2

In British Labour’s ‘disastrous’ 1935 election under Clement Attlee it won 38% votes and 154 of the 615 seats. In 2024, 34% votes and 411 out of 650 seats. 2/2

Of the 19 TDs first elected in 20C, 10 have now announced retiring at next eln. The other 9: Bernard Durkan (1981), Willie O’Dea (1982), Ml Lowry (1987), Micheál Martin (1989), Brendan Smith (1992), Ml Ring (1994), Seán Fleming (1997), John McGuinness (1997), Ml Moynihan (1997).

Olympics: interesting that team from UK is called ‘Great Britain’, not ‘United Kingdom’ – thus, it seems, deliberately cold-shouldering Northern Ireland. Any reason for this? Any other countries competing under name other than the name of the state?

Of the 19 TDs first elected in 20C, 11 have now announced they’re retiring at next eln. The other 8: Bernard Durkan (1981), Willie O’Dea (1982), Michael Lowry (1987), Micheál Martin (1989), Brendan Smith (1992), Seán Fleming (1997), John McGuinness (1997), Michael Moynihan (1997)

At least one similar on this island too – this from Ballycastle Co Antrim.

Ballycastle is at least safer than Asturias, where drivers are warned of the risk of attack by giant luminous bears, hunting in packs.

Very sorry to hear this. Well remembered as positive, supportive, gregarious, also no-nonsense quizmaster at Lancaster conferences. And much respected academically, inter alia contributor many years ago of fine chapter on Britain in Candidate Selection in Comparative Perspective.

TCD Seanad seat has now lain vacant for 7 months following David Norris resignation, with no sign of movement on by-election. This could foster perception that university seats are some kind of exotic and inessential appendage to Seanad, not integral and valuable part of it.

Joe Carey (FG, Clare) resignation means now 5 Dáil seats vacant. If election not till March 2025 as govt says, then no reason writs can’t be moved as soon as Dáil reconvenes on 18 Sept. If that doesn’t happen, surely an indication that govt intends to go to country this autumn.

And if the by-elections are held: with 2 seats now vacant in Clare (Joe Carey & Michael McNamara), there’s the prospect of the first 2-seat by-election since two took place (Dublin N & Leitrim–Sligo) back in March 1925. Which I only vaguely remember, was just a gasún at the time.

So 27,000 match attendees boost Irish economy by €115m; over €4k per person. Does estimate assume that all those hotel rooms & restaurant seats would otherwise have been empty, or is calculation more sophisticated than that? rte.ie/news/ireland/2…

The somewhat artificial ‘row / outrage’ about England football manager not singing ‘the national anthem’ made even more bizarre by simple fact that the anthem in question is that of the UK, not England. Could be asked why English FA believes it has the right to appropriate it.

Outcomes of July UK election under different versions of PR vary, but only v marginally in relation to actual outcome. Figures based on (obviously unrealistic) assumption that all votes cast exactly as on 4 July and that seats allocated in relation to share of national UK vote.

Why has support for Sinn Féin dropped sharply in recent months? Interesting analysis by Dr Rory Costello (UL) identifies issue of immigration as central factor: politicalreform.ie/2024/09/09/the…

Recent Business Post / Red C poll: FG 23, FF 18, SF 18. Hard to see how SF can get into govt unless numbers change dramatically, which is unlikely if election held in autumn 24 (though possible if it’s delayed until 2025). 1/2 rte.ie/news/2024/0914…

Also hard to see how FG & FF could be in govt without the other – plus a third wheel, whether Greens, Labour, Ind Irl or some inds. Meaning that while Simon Hariis has constitutional power to call election, it would be v unwise to do this without agreement of Micheál Martin. 2/2

Frequent calls for ‘soft left’ parties to form bloc or even (Lab & SD) merge. But why? Acting independently they’re more agile, & one (eg Lab, or Grns since 2020) could be viable coalition partner for FF & FG, which it wouldn’t be if entire soft left bloc had to move as one unit.

Commissioners typically want portfolio that’s at least salient for their own country. Fact that name of current Justice Commissioner, Didier Reynders (from Belgium), is virtually unknown in Irl suggests that Michael McGrath hasn’t exactly won the raffle in the allocation process.

Looks as if govt would have done better to renominate Mairéad McGuinness as EU Commissioner. Govt agreement meant post went to FF, but does FF really benefit from losing M McGrath to Europe? And in any case, this could have been swapped for somethng else in inter-party trade-offs